Methodology, Tools, and Guidelines  on Impact-Based Forecasting (IBF)

Multi-hazard early warning center (MHEWC)

Designed & implemented by : Z M Sajjadul Islam , UNDP – International Consultant, Mongolia

Acronym

Contents

1.0  Chapter : Introduction of Impact-Based Forecasting :

1.1 Importance of developing an integrated IBF platform :

1.2  Framework of integrated impact forecasting, weather warning, and MHEWS.

1.3  The expected  benefits of an integrated IBF platform:

2.0   Chapter: Stakeholder Partnership  & Communication.

2.1 Rationale of  Partnership ( both formal  and virtual context) :

2.2   Data Coordination and exchange mechanism..

2.3 Mandating partnership for data  coordination, exchange, and risk communication.

2. 4 Technical Working Group for forecast   Impact analysis  :

2.5 Process of translating traditional forecast/weather outlook to impact forecasts :

2.6   Defined roles of partners  during multi-hazard emergencies :

2.7        Partnership capacity building Process :

2.7.1   Organize regular Workshop/Consultation/Seminar/Meetings to improve service delivery:

2.7.2   Removing the Barriers to partnership building  :

2.7.3    Strengthening integrated partnerships for getting  multi-hazard situation updates from the local level.

2.7.4   Improving IBF and warning systems efficiency and Efficacy.

3.0   Chapter: ICT Structures  of IBF Platform :

3.1 Implementation of Opensource Geospatial Platform :

3.1.1  Component of Opensource Geospatial Platform:

3.1.2         Installation  of Geoserver :

3.1.3         Anchoring google mapping tools  :

3.1.4  Installation and Configuring surveying apps.

3.1.5  Deploying File-Sharing Tools :

3.1.6 Implementing  Web converting common alerting protocol (CAP )apps :

3.2 Rationale of integrating  ICT with the IBF platform :

3.3 Software &  Tools Proposed for the ICT-integrated IBF Platform..

3.4        IBF internal and external data acquisition and coordination system ( maintaining data sensitivity and privacy).

3.4.1 Data workflow  and data  archive structures ( at IBF central level )   :

3.4.2 Centralization of Database Archive and Services by IBF Platform..

3.4.2.1 Develop databases with PostgreSQL server :

3.4.2.2  Impact forecast manufacturing tools, input datasets, and Process:

4.0  Chapter: Data Coordination and exchange mechanisms.

4.1 Data Coordination and exchange mechanisms  at Aimag level :

5.0        Chapter :   Aimag   Emergency Operations Center (EOC) / Situation Room..

5.1        Mandating an Emergency Operations Center (EOC) / Situation Room at the aimag center  :

5.2 Aimag level NAMEM human resources   :

5.3  Structure of the Aimag EOC / Situation Room..

5.4        Functions of EOC / Situation Room    :

5.4.1 Technical   Functions of EOC / Situation Room    :

6.0 Chapter : IBF Forecasting Process.

6.1 Undertake operational shift from traditional forecast to integrated Impact-based forecasting (IBF ) , warning, and alerting.

6.2 The IBF Value Chain:

6.3 IBF preparation and forecasting process  :

6.4        Converting  traditional forecast  to IBF.

6.4.1 Analyze  impacts over the seasonal forecasts  :

6.4.2  Processing  monthly  IBF  :

6.4.3  Preparing medium-range Forecast  :

6.4.4 Preparing short  range Forecast   :

6.4.5  The   short-range forecasts usability :

6.5 Short range impact forecast preparation.

7.0  Chapter : Operational Forecasts :

8.0 Chapter : The multi-hazard early  warning  system..

8. 1  Improved and hybrid weather observation  mechanism :

8.2.       Process of  developing  an Early Warning :

8.3        The multi-hazard early warning process:

8.4        Anchoring NEMA Early Warning System with IBF:

8.5 Integrated IBF, Warnings, Alerting, and energy hazard early warnings & Advisories :

8.6 Convective weather condition-induced hazards  early warning :

8.7  Convective weather condition  screening  mechanism..

8.8  Strong/Damaging  Wind  induced hazards warning  :

8.9 Hazardous winter weather early warning  :

8.10 Template: Winter weather emergency advisory.

8.11 IBF Flood Impact Forecasting:

9.0 Chapter: Impact Forecasting and Warning for Livestock Sector :

9.1 Impact analyzing  methodology :

9.2        Risk repository development process  :

9.3  Advisory on Integrated Pasture Monitoring System:

9.4  Alert and warning services for livestock & Crop agriculture.

9.5  Develop dzud risk profile :

9.6  Web-based MIS system for Dzud risk management :

9.7  Develop Dzud Early warning protocol.

1.0  Chapter : Introduction of Impact-Based Forecasting :

The impact-based forecasting (IBF) is a technical & operational shift from traditional forecast( ‘what weather be ) to impact forecast (‘what weather can do’).  It encompasses transformative and structural changes from the traditional forecasts to IT database & GIS tool-based analytics of color-coded thresholds of impacts, exposure,  risks, vulnerabilities of the ground,  anticipatory losses & damages likely to impend over the forecast lead time.  Therefore, the humanitarian community and vulnerable sectors will early be informed about the impact level and be able to develop an early action protocol (EAP) for better preparedness. ICT-driven integrated impact-based weather forecasting, warning, alerting, and multi-hazard early warning system( MHEWS) is a WMO’s new approach to coming up with a one-stop solution to improved weather and climate information services starting from baseline climate risk and vulnerability assessment, risk repository, and atlas preparation so that any impending hazards weather events being well screened, predicted with spatiotemporal scale and anticipatory loss &  damages (L & D) being well advised over the forecast lead-time until hazardous weather events being dissipated. 

Traditional weather forecasting provides limited information on weather conditions, such as temperature, precipitation, wind speed, and, other atmospheric conditions, but IBF takes it steps further by providing information on how those conditions could impact ground elements by & large. For example, an IBF  forecast intends to provide information on frequency, the intensity of weather events, the threshold of impacts at the spatiotemporal scale of the impending hazardous weather, anticipatory risk and vulnerability, loss &  damages(L & D) are likely, how to develop an early action protocol (EAP), early warning based early action ( EWEA) detailed contingency plans and anticipatory budgeting to be allocated for better preparedness, etc.

1.1 Importance of developing an integrated IBF platform :

Addressing the diverse and rapidly changing weather phenomena of Mongolia the  IBF system is intended to bridge the structural, process, and forecast product manufacturing gaps of NAMEM/IRIMHE. A robust integrated IBF platform methodology is being proposed for linking and mandating other essential partners to interactively contribute to the system.  IBF  implementation and operational process intended to reciprocate & correlate impact calculation process of forecasted impending high-impact weather conditions being impacting with existing baseline risks and vulnerabilities of the elements on the ground.

The IBF process depends on the multifaceted, interactive, functional, regular proactive coordination mechanism amongst all stakeholders. The data-sharing protocol to the IBF process. The IBF needs to classify the stakeholder categories, the responsibilities over to risk information coordination, risks and impeding impact interpretation over to impending onset extreme weather events and to managing the risk and vulnerabilities of induced disaster.

Figure 1: Integrated IBF system overview 

• The important input ingredients for the IBF process are to have a readily available sector-specific comprehensive baseline risk and vulnerability assessed repository, corresponding risk and vulnerability attribute database, and risk atlas analysis with GIS tools for forecast impact analysis.
• The ICT-enabled IBF platform has an interface for real-time information tracking of crowdsourcing and ICT-based hybrid surface weather observation ( automated system) on the current  hazardous weather conditions,
• Weather and climate risk-informed planning tools for sectoral planning and project/scheme implementation.
• Multi-layered weather forecasts, weather warnings, alerting, impending multi-hazard early warning, hotspot tracked geospatial dashboard with tailormade impending weather and climate information services for holistic sectoral preparedness planning and triggering anticipatory early actions for minimization of L & Ds.
• Develop robust hazard-informed Ealy action protocol (EAP), early warning early actions planning, devising anticipatory loss, and damage scenarios based on pre-emptive humanitarian response planning and contingency mobilization.
• Develop GIS tools-based IBF platform has the provision for analyzing the threshold-based weather warnings and develops common alerting protocol in the event of severe weather expected to trigger disaster. The platform able to provide  Multi-hazard Impact-based Forecast and Warning Services and national meteorological and hydrological services (NMHS) agencies be able to directly communicate with vulnerable communities, sectors, and end-users with group-based apps and can provide any useful situational updates for informing common alerting.
• Designing an IBF structured information system on impact forecasting, hazard warning, tailor-made exposure, and vulnerability information to identify risk and support for humanitarian decision-making, provides a way forward to undertake early action that reduces damages and loss of life from natural hazards.
• Traditional weather forecasts indicate what the weather will be, for example, 70 mm & above hourly rain in a given location., however, IBF considers the vulnerability of elements and vulnerable population and their assets to heavy rainfall-triggered flooding and flash flooding impacts, such as loss of life and properties.
• The main benefit of the IBF is that it combines hazard forecasts like heavy rainfall, severe wind, or temperature, with the elements that are exposed to the hazard such as buildings, transport routes, and population distribution, and the vulnerability of individuals, properties, or infrastructure.
• The IBF enables an integrated, authoritative message to be delivered to all parts of society so that everyone can take appropriate action to ensure personal safety and protect property.

1.2  Framework of integrated impact forecasting, weather warning, and MHEWS

The intended design aspect of an integrated IBF is to provide a one-stop solution for weather and climate information services. This robust  Mongolian IBF system essentially to  complement the WMO’s global efforts of transitioning  from traditional weather forecasts to integrated impact forecasting, weather warning, alerting, and multi-hazard early warning system (MHEWS) extensively covering to last mile. The proposed IBF system is also imperative for the Sendai Framework to full-scale Implementation and access of MHEWS and disaster risk information and assessments to the climate frontline.

Figure 2: Framework of impact base forecasting, warning, alerting, and MHEWS(Source: Z M Sajjadul Islam).

1.3  The expected  benefits of an integrated IBF platform:

• Impact-based forecasts and warnings provide a roadmap of anticipatory actions, an early action protocol(EAP) that enables preparedness measures for saving lives, properties, and livelihoods.
• Impact-based forecasts and warnings communicate information that allows those at risk to make effective decisions to safeguard against the impact of forecast extreme weather or climate events.
• Developing impact-based forecasts and warnings builds strong, collaborative partnerships between national meteorological and hydrological services and sectors operating in disaster risk reduction and management.
• Impact-based forecasting communicates uncertainties. Decision makers can factor the uncertainties into choosing appropriate actions.
• Forecast producers and users of Impact-based forecasting and warnings are able to share data, best practices, and critical information before, during, and after weather and climate events to improve the quality of forecast and warning information. There are opportunities for forecasts to support strategic planning in the County such as through using forecasts to inform sectoral annual plans and related budgets, to raise awareness of potential climate risks, and resource mobilization for early action.

2.0   Chapter: Stakeholder Partnership  & Communication

Core objective: The principal objective is to develop a stronger commitment, mandating coherent coordination of partners, and stakeholders by networking to a hybrid partnership mechanism of data/information coordination, exchange, and risk communication mechanisms.

IBF processes the multifaceted functional and proactive coordination mechanism regularly. The data-sharing paradigm is inextricably linked to the IBF process. We need to classify the stakeholder category, and the responsibilities, on the multi-hazard onset, and disaster onset.

State-of-the-art ICT-enabled interface artificial intelligence(AI) and IT program-driven functional systems having robust traceability capacity over the 24/7 proactiveness can predict what weather will do and impacts level, anticipatory intensity and frequency, scalability of extreme weather parameters turning to disaster, and need to be well addressed.

2.1 Rationale of  Partnership ( both formal  and virtual context) :    

The IBF has indispensable features and service delivery capacities for mandating the connectedness of stakeholders with the system and remains operational for demand driven service deliveries. The engineering aspect of the IBF platform to design with ICT enabled robust architecture for having optimum operability with interfacing multiple sources information, recurrent processability, and the IBF product output system optimally works on an interactive partnership of stakeholders across the country. The sector-specific impact level analysis of the hazardous weather parameters sought the involvement of designated specialized government national hydrometeorological organizations (NMHS), sectoral departments, R & D organizations & specialists, academia, mandated partners, commercial stakeholders, herders, and vulnerable community to contribute inputs for making IBF readily available and on the time. 

Mandating the aforementioned stakeholders through a set of standard operating procedures (SoP ) viably to a common consensus of a proactive, time-critical partnership and collaboration amongst the wide range of technical partners and agencies engaged in meteorology, climatology, hydrology, disaster risk management, local government sectors, pre-disaster risk assessment group, post-disaster damage, loss and needs assessment (PDNA) group, disaster first-responders, vulnerable community, herders group, etc. for the contribution.  The IBF system thus ensures functional partnership by encouraging stakeholders getting into access to the platform with a  sense of ownership imperatively to demand-driven weather information service delivery for the IBF related data/information process, informed tools development, and deliverables to climate & disaster emergency management.

The IBF process depends on the multifaceted, interactive, functional, regular proactive coordination mechanism amongst all stakeholders. The data-sharing protocol to the IBF process. The IBF needs to classify the stakeholder categories, the responsibilities over to risk information coordination, risks and impeding impact interpretation over to impending onset extreme weather events and to managing the risk and vulnerabilities of induced disaster.

2.0   Chapter: Stakeholder Partnership  & Communication

Core objective: The principal objective is to develop a stronger commitment, mandating coherent coordination of partners, and stakeholders by networking to a hybrid partnership mechanism of data/information coordination, exchange, and risk communication mechanisms.

IBF processes the multifaceted functional and proactive coordination mechanism regularly. The data-sharing paradigm is inextricably linked to the IBF process. We need to classify the stakeholder category, and the responsibilities, on the multi-hazard onset, and disaster onset.

State-of-the-art ICT-enabled interface artificial intelligence(AI) and IT program-driven functional systems having robust traceability capacity over the 24/7 proactiveness can predict what weather will do and impacts level, anticipatory intensity and frequency, scalability of extreme weather parameters turning to disaster, and need to be well addressed.

2.1 Rationale of  Partnership ( both formal  and virtual context) :    

The IBF has indispensable features and service delivery capacities for mandating the connectedness of stakeholders with the system and remains operational for demand-driven service deliveries. The engineering aspect of the IBF platform to design with ICT enabled robust architecture for having optimum operability with interfacing multiple sources of information, recurrent processability, and the IBF product output system optimally works on an interactive partnership of stakeholders across the country. The sector-specific impact level analysis of the hazardous weather parameters sought the involvement of designated specialized government national hydrometeorological organizations (NMHS), sectoral departments, R & D organizations & specialists, academia, mandated partners, commercial stakeholders, herders, and vulnerable community to contribute inputs for making IBF readily available and on the time. 

Mandating the aforementioned stakeholders through a set of standard operating procedures (SoP ) viably to a common consensus of a proactive, time-critical partnership and collaboration amongst the wide range of technical partners and agencies engaged in meteorology, climatology, hydrology, disaster risk management, local government sectors, pre-disaster risk assessment group, post-disaster damage, loss and needs assessment (PDNA) group, disaster first-responders, vulnerable community, herders group, etc. for the contribution.  The IBF system thus ensures functional partnership by encouraging stakeholders gettin

2.2   Data Coordination and Exchange Mechanism

The initial IBF workflow is to analyze the impacts of impending extreme weather being just forecasted, but the whole IBF mechanism demands multiple layers of information, e.g., requisites of background risk & vulnerability datasets are essential. The IBF process comes across over the steps and primarily to do a background check of the persistent risk and vulnerabilities being inherited from the landscape, local weather & climate system, and inbuilt environmental context, and secondly to estimate the risk, vulnerability, exposure, and sensitivity over the standing elements(annexure 1)  at the event of impending extreme /hazardous weather are likely to be interacting with the ground, thirdly, stakeholders need to know how and what level of frequencies of the extreme weather events are turning multi-hazards. Finally, the whole IBF mechanism needs to track hazardous events until they dissipate and take stock of the trail of L & D being yielded by the localized disaster.

Considering the above functional steps, the IBF workflow process ( discussed figure 3, & figure 4 ) is segmented into several workstreams, and at any given stage, stakeholder engagement is very important. The IBF process needs to depend on an input system of data capture, repository, and archives of root-level sectoral and elements risk and vulnerability data for the purpose-driven IBF process. The partners and stakeholders are mandated to supply their climate risk and vulnerability (CRVA)  data and information for reviewing the persistent risk and vulnerabilities and push for recurrently updating information to the IBF system.

In any given case of rapidly changing weather( spatiotemporal and hourly/diurnally changed ) patterns e.g., an incidental case of cold fronts induced storm on 26 May 2008  caused a huge amount of damage, and it claimed  52 human tolls and about 600,000 livestock are lost  (UNDP 2008). Unlike this type of weather uncertainty and very fastest onset weather conditions are recurrently taking a lot of tolls on livestock. Herders, smallholder farmers, and sector departments need to develop an event repository of high-impacts, loss, and damage scenarios an important baseline archive for analyzing the impacts in further impact analysis.

For analyzing the high-impacts the IBF impact analysts( meteorologist )  team always need to do the background checks (from the impact database) for similar sort of weather events being anticipated and impending as high-impact weather conditions. The partnership process to be mandated by the essential background (risk repository development and understanding)  works need to be done by the partners for strengthening the IBF process, as it is such a hybrid process that forecasters, sector/elements risk & vulnerability analysts always need to be well concerted with climate change impacts, climate variables/parameters, weather, impending multi-hazards, spatiotemporal impact interpretation, weather risk and vulnerability assessment and risk prioritizations. 

All participating stakeholders/partners/authorities/vulnerable communities are to be mandated to contribute elements specific baseline risk and vulnerability information for the effectiveness and efficiency of the system- IBF partnership mechanism. The partnership mechanism( figure 3 ) renders the both-ways communication e.g., giving the inputs baseline risk, vulnerability geolocation information of every element and harmonizing the risk-informed tools benefiting the sectoral planning process continues even after the development and implementation of impact-based forecasting services. Members of the partnership can be tasked with monitoring the effectiveness of forecasts and warnings and providing feedback for improvement.

Partners have roles important in risk communication and analyzing the impact of forecasts and warnings. Essential partners are to be mandated with responsibilities for early actions to prepare for and respond to hazardous weather and climate events. These actions include advising vulnerable communities on what to do in extreme weather or climate events. Combining partner’s anticipatory advice with impact-base.

2.3 Mandating partnership for data  coordination, exchange, and risk communication  

Considering the types of workflow and mandating partner’s responsibilities over the interacting and integrating with the IBF platform for weather and Climate risk information communication, sharing data and information repository on sector-specific risk and vulnerability all those are administrative processes. Essentially NEMA & NAMEM jointly play a pivotal role by mandating partners with defined standard operating procedures ( SOP)  in information coordination and communication mechanisms from the local to the central level.

1. The sector department is to be mandated to conduct Climate and weather risk and vulnerability and risk repository.   For harmonizing external data from the partners/ Stakeholder/sector departments, several tools have been proposed e.g. google drive, dorpbox, Microsoft SharePoint(useful) , IBF FTP server, IBF geonode server, and from crowdsource to use Kobo-toolbox, SurveyMonkey, WhatsApp, Twitter, Facebook, Telegram, mobile apps, etc.,  all those tools for instantly capturing any event situation, circulated news, social journalism, for capturing pictures, video clips on situation updates on multi-hazards, disaster incidence from the field level for alerting and situational update about the on-going hazardous events at the frontline.

• Conducting climate and weather risk and vulnerability assessment (CRVA) and risk repository development: Sector department e.g. Livestock & crop agriculture, water, soil & land department, Municipality/urban local governments,  ( aimag, soum, bag), communication and transport sector, industries & mining sector, private sector ( value chain operators ), etc., organization and entities to be mandated to conduct CRVA for their sector,  share risk information with IBF platform and contribute for the forecast impact analysis and event situation reporting.

• Weather and climate information services: Autonomously NAMEM/IRIMHE is being mandated for generating weather forecasts, weather warnings, alerting, surface weather observation, and climate information services to supply as input devices for impact-based forecasting and forecast-based financing process.

• Multi-hazard risk information collection, hazardous situation, and disaster incidence tracking: The   National Emergency Management Agency (NEMA) & Local Emergency Management Agency (LEMA) is the nodal agency of Mongolia to play the leading role and mandate the local government actors, local humanitarian actors, MRCS volunteers for dealing with the multi-hazards. Mandating Local Government Sector departments, community volunteers, herders, and sector field technicians to capture weather risk phenomena e.g., impending thunderstorm/lighting/heavy rainfall, strong wind, dust storm/haze, cold rain, snowstorm onset, extreme cold & high temperature, winter storm, high-density snowfall, etc. data with geolocation(lat./long.), picture and video. Similarly, to capture ongoing multi-hazard and disaster incidence information( pictures, video clips), loss and damage information onset of hazardous conditions.  INGO/UN Agency project offices at the local level can play a coordination role in fostering the process. 

• Weather factored Dzud risk information tracking and analysis: The Technical Working Group (TWG) to coordinate the Livestock, and crop Agriculture sector to mandate for conducting CRVA, risk repository development, and analyzing impacts of extreme weather on the sector, sectoral elements ( annexure 1) as a specialist sector partner; following special responsibilities also need to be carried out.
• Acquisition of datasets of the biomass pasture conditions over the seasons with data collection from the  Rangeland health monitoring station, biomass pasture monitoring through the photo points, available pasture biomass plants, grass over the boreal ecosystem, commercial pasture/forage cropper and yield data, etc.
• Repository (maintains event register/diary) on herder indigenous knowledge and coping capacity of livelihood and livestock to the severe & extreme weather conditions, climate tolerant Livestock husbandry management,  weather/climate risk/vulnerabilities on livestock value chain operations, etc, for impact analysis.
• Sustainable pasture management information system: Regular stock-taking, pasture budgeting ( surplus & shortage ), biomass pasture productivity monitoring, ecological health monitoring, Integrated farm management (IFM) practices, DTM management, etc., how risk logging of how weather and climate causing detrimental factors and affecting this value chain management.
• Constantly monitoring and logging risks of the weather and climate change-induced impact indicators over the whole sectoral value chain operations. This is essential for defining the dzud indices for both the climatic and non-climatic indexes/indices and tracking how indicators are contributing to combined dzud factors.
• Jointly set collaboration between the Land Administration department( ALAGaC/ALAMGaC) and the agrometeorological research division to conduct rangeland health monitoring ( 1516 sites data tracking and photographing from photo point monitoring sites ) system, biomass growth monitoring, vegetation types and coverage, soil thawing/degradation, soil health, soil temperature, soil moisture, ice thickness over the soil, snow density, individual dzud factor on pasture grazing barriers( impenetrable ice), drought monitoring(agricultural Hydrometeorological, environmental) needs to contribute data on weekly basis and share GIS maps with IBF platform for pasture/ forage related risk analysis.
• Conduct a survey ( Kobo Toolbox, GPS data logger, GPS essential ) and digitally track the herder’s socio-economic condition, livestock size, livelihood assets of herders, HIES statistical datasets the sector, age-sex disaggregated vulnerability data of the herder household population, livestock age/class data (calf, young, matured ), livestock health/body-condition/weight data  (required for dzud risk analysis).
• Record keeping on rapid onset convective weather conditions (thunderstorm, heavy rainfall, lightning, hailstorm) from each herder to send via Kobo-toolbox apps, WhatsApp group, social media to aimag EOC/Situation room/IBF central server via  IBF portal converting IBF mobile apps for risk and impact analysis.

1. Data and Information coordination with the IBF platform :

Partner-level CRVA database/information management (with Annexure – 3 & discussed next chapter): Input indicators and variables for livestock impact analysis  ) to be linked and uploaded to the IBF database server which is an important input for the IBF impact & risk analysis process.

• Archive Sector elements database and risk & vulnerability information repository, multi-hazard risk information, disaster impact, loss, and damage database.
• Mandating Stakeholders working areas ( 5W – Who will do what, where, when, and how), service deliveries, beneficiaries, vulnerable populations, utilization of risk-informed tools in the sectoral development planning process.

Figure   3: IBF Data coordination, exchange, and partnership mechanism ( Source : Z M Sajjadul Islam)

Table 1:  Partner’s Checklist and major role in the IBF Process

2. 4 Technical Working Group for forecast   Impact analysis  :

For facilitating the IBF process, technical working groups ( TWG) and designated responsibilities need to be mainstreamed for setting out a cross-functional IBF working modality. The table below outlined the workflows of TWGs.

Table 2: Technical Working Group for the IBF Impact Analysis 

2.5 Process of translating traditional forecast/weather outlook to impact forecasts : 

NAMEM/IRIMHE been entitled as a principal partner to prepare forecasts (e.g. lang range outlooks, anomalies monthly, seasonal, yearly) relating to regional, and global weather/climate factors affecting technical analysis of trend, screening weather/Climate risk and vulnerability from the trends. 

Utilizing forecast model data, surface observation time-series data, crowdsource observation data, and preparing weather warnings:

2.6   Defined roles of partners  during multi-hazard emergencies :

2.7  Partnership capacity building Process :

2.7.1   Organize regular Workshop/Consultation/Seminar/Meetings to improve service delivery:

The IBF process encompasses interactive, concerted, and coordinated efforts of a set of hydrometeorological forecasters, sector experts, and climate risk assessment experts,  DRM experts to work together with an integrated system, the recurrent consultations required for the improvement of the IBF process, information requirements, quality data acquisitions, real-time observation data, event situation data with geo-location, incidence data, etc are an imperative for quality IBF deliveries.

Regularly organized online webinars, Facebook group/page discussions, WhatsApp group discussions, etc tools expected to provide excellent event organization facilitates for discussion on how to gather, analyze info and develop user requirements, such as workshops, surveys, interviews, and technical working groups to analyze and develop requirements into impact-based forecasting. It is essential to keep users’ (herds, vulnerable communities) comments and recommendations heard about the impact of forecast quality improvements.

The critical observations and performance assessment of the impact forecast, weather warning, and common alerting protocol stakeholders need to be incorporated for product improvements.

2.7.2   Removing the Barriers to partnership building  :

• Mandating stakeholders, and partners to proactively provide information, recurrently updating.
• Facilitate unlimited sessions on particular GIS maps with impact interpretations at different capital stages of high impact forecasted lead-time and lifecycles with advisors, warnings, and alerting by plotting hotspots over map and record keeping for future uses. 
• Online, data communication and sharing facility.
• Constant monitoring of stakeholder’s activities who providing what type of information
• Any volunteers and herders living in remote areas, even not having cell networks can capture info in off-line mode and transmit information while accessing the cell phone networks.
• Social networks support round-the-clock data and information communication facilities.
• Powerful networking platform in which any individual likes to volunteer disaster incidence information with geolocation.
• Every stakeholder be able to easily  understand the roles and responsibilities of risk data captures, impact interpretation, technical briefings,  information update/upload and dissemination,
• An established online forum, group allows experts/specialists/crowdsource to provide useful inputs,  exchange of knowledge, ideas, expertise, intelligence, and best practice concerning natural hazards.
• Process-centric Standard Operating Procedures (SoP) risk information communication, input data access, GIS-based interpretation, and direct uploading to the platform for dissemination is the one-stop solution for  IBF
• Provide a timely, common, and consistent source of advice to government and emergency responders for civil contingencies and disaster response.
• IBF is heavily a process-friendly multi-hazard risk, climate change risk information management platform supporting the government for risk-informed local development planning process.
• Create an environment for the development of new services to assist in disaster response.
• Create a user feedback loop for receiving comments.  
• Agreement among stakeholders and partners on what constitutes utility and cooperation to analyze and evaluate events to improve the warning system.

2.7.3    Strengthening integrated partnerships for getting  multi-hazard situation updates from the local level. 

Mandated partnership( figure 3)  protocol for acquisition and transmitting local level (hard-to-reach areas) hazard incidence tracking to facilitate an integrated early warning system by using IBF risk communication crowdsource tools etc., for tracking hazard incidence from any remote corner of the country.

2.7.4   Improving IBF and warning systems efficiency and Efficacy. 

 The emphasis is on the utility of the forecast, not just the accuracy of the underlying meteorological or hydrological prediction. The IBF and warning system being intended to capture the last-mile risk information, NAMEM /IRIMHE current observation mechanism is not sufficient for the complete acquisition of hazard incidence information from very local and remote levels.  The aimag EOC to be operational to facilitate communication with last mile risk so that during multi-hazard onset the remote herder/ger can provide emergency information.  

Figure 22 :  Nowcasting, hourly, daily IBF for issuing multi-hazard early warning   :

For complete design document, please contact….

For design, and installation at the country level, please contact Z M Sajjadul Islam

Email : zmsajjad@gmail.com

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