Emergency Operations Center(EOC) Setup

Establishment of Multi-Hazard Early Warning System (MHEWS) in African Center of Meteorological Applications for Development (ACMAD) at Niamey, Niger.
Designed and Implementation by  : Z M Sajjadul Islam

International Consultant – Multi-hazard Early Warning Expert of ACMAD (UNDRR Africa))  

[ The researcher is strictly copyrighting by Z M Sajjadul Islam , Multi-hazard early warning Expert . For detailed knowledge, system design, ICT Technologies, Geospatial & IT Programmatic coding, and other issues related to Global Multi-hazard early warnings please email : zmsajjad@gmail.com. Call me at WhatsApp : +88 01711 979179 , Skype : zmsajjad ]

1.0  Chapter: Introduction and Objective………………………………………………………………………………… 8

1.2   Objective of the establishment of Multi-Hazard Early Warning System (MHEWS)…………….. 8

3.0  Current structure and Process of ACMAD…………………………………………………………………………. 10

3.1 About ACMAD:…………………………………………………………………………………………………… 10

3.2 ACMAD Vision :………………………………………………………………………………………………….. 11

3.3 ACMAD Major Areas of Interventions :……………………………………………………………………. 11

3.4 ACMAD Organogram:………………………………………………………………………………………….. 12

3.5 ACMAD capacity improvement programme for the stakeholders :………………………………… 13

3.6 ACMAD institutional linkages………………………………………………………………………………… 13

3.7  Current product and services……………………………………………………………………………….. 13

3.8 ACMAD role as continental impact-based multi-hazard advisory center………………………… 14

3.9 Different products of impact-based early warning…………………………………………………….. 15

3.10   CIMA Foundation Technical Supports for ACMAD…………………………………………………… 15

3.11   Support from AUC Africa Media Monitor (AMM) on communication  for  emergency  operational planning…………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………….. 15

3.12   Updating  of emergency operational plan and implementation………………………………… 15

3.13   ACMAD status of Rapid on-set extreme weather forecasting……………………………………. 15

3.14 Coordination mechanism of data exchange(inter-operability)……………………………………. 15

3.15 ACMAD stakeholders, partners are benefitting from ACMAD delivered services……………. 16

4.0   Establishment of an Integrated and impact-based Muti-hazard Continental Advisory Center at ACMAD 18

4.1  Upgraded Muti-hazard Continental Advisory Center (Continental advisory center ):……….. 18

4.2  CIMA Foundation Technical Supports for ACMAD……………………………………………………… 18

4.3  Installation and operationalization of myDEWETRA platform……………………………………… 19

4.4  Hydrometeorological analytical tools for MHEW Continental advisory center :………………. 19

4.5   Proposed activities for the multi-hazard risk and vulnerability analysis:……………………….. 19

4.6   Proposed coordination mechanism of data exchange at the continental and regional level  20

5.0 UNDRR support for establishment of Muti-hazard Continental Advisory Center……………………………. 21

5.1  Enhance the capacity of ACMAD in multi-hazard risk-informed tool development………….. 21

5.2  The objective of upgrading the ACMAD Muti-hazard Continental Advisory Center :………… 22

6.0  ICT structures of ACMAD Weather Watch Center:……………………………………………………………….. 23

6.1 Components of ACMAD Center……………………………………………………………………………… 23

6.2 Proposed additional infrastructures & tools   for data access and process services…………… 24

6.2   PUMA Nowcasting input satellites, types, and functions :…………………………………………. 25

6.3    The main component  Muti-hazard Continental Advisory Center (Continental advisory center )  27

6.4  Proposed Data Linkage with Tropical Storm warning center at La Réunion  :………………….. 29

6.5  Data Linkage with AUC, ICPAC, RECs, NHMS, Emergency management Focal Point:…………. 29

6.6  Proposed Data Linkage with WMO designated center:………………………………………………. 29

7.0 Muti-hazard Continental Advisory Center interoperability……………………………………………………… 31

7.1  The myDEWETRA 2.0 System Installation :………………………………………………………………. 31

7.2  Usability of myDEWETRA in  Climate and disaster risk management :…………………………… 32

7.3   Usability of  myDEWETRA in ACMAD’s Multi-hazard Forecasting, Risk & Vulnerability Analysis  : 37

7.4   Multi-hazard early warning product  development process :……………………………………… 37

7.5   Types of Products is intended to produce:……………………………………………………………… 38

8.0 The standard operating procedure (SOP) of MHEWS Center……………………………………………………. 39

8.1 Standard Operating Procedures ( SOP) of Muti-hazard Continental Advisory Center………… 40

8.2 Defined Roles under Standard Operating Procedures ( SOP)………………………………………… 41

8.3 Weather Observation Process :……………………………………………………………………………… 42

8.4 Forecast & Bulleting Development Process ::……………………………………………………………. 43

8.5   Forecasting  Process :…………………………………………………………………………………………. 43

8.6   SOP on developing Alert Level……………………………………………………………………………… 48

8.7   Showcases myDEWETRA platform………………………………………………………………………… 49

8.8  Weather forecasting with myDEWETRA platform……………………………………………………… 53

8.9  myDEWETRA data harmonization for risk-informed tools development process…………….. 59

8.10  An Integrated  Approach on Multi-hazard Early Warnings and Products Development ……….

process………………………………………………………………………………………………………………….. 66

8.11 Steps of Product development process………………………………………………………………….. 66

8.12 Types of Products and Services being intended……………………………………………………….. 67

8.13 Seven (7) Days Rainfall Warning & Forecasting ( 1Day, 2 Days,3 Days,4 Days,5 Days,6 Days,7 Days)            67

9.14 Forecast Verification :………………………………………………………………………………………… 69

9.0 Coordination Mechanism for Data Exchange……………………………………………………………………… 70

9.1 Purpose of the Multi-hazard Early Warning Data Coordination Mechanism……………………. 70

9.2 Objectives of the Data Coordination & Exchange Mechanism………………………………………. 71

9.4   Actionable coordination Mechanism for Data Exchange……………………………………………. 74

9.5   Roles of AUC for the coordination…………………………………………………………………………. 77

9.6  Roles of RECs Level coordination…………………………………………………………………………… 77

9.7   Roles  of ACMAD level………………………………………………………………………………………… 77

9.8  Roles of ICPAC level…………………………………………………………………………………………….. 78

9.9  Roles of Member States………………………………………………………………………………………. 78

9.10  Proposed coordination mechanism with WMO designated RSMC/RCC :……………………… 78

9.10  Recommendations  of Coordination mechanism of data exchange……………………………… 79

9.11 ACMAD Products and Services for DRM………………………………………………………………………….. 81

9.12  ACAMD Products and services for coordinating multi-hazard preparedness planning :………………….. 81

9.13   Data Dissemination & Feedbacks Receiving Mechanism……………………………………………………… 93

9.14  The necessity of launching MHEWS web portal………………………………………………………. 93

9.15  Social journalism/Citizen through social media………………………………………………………. 93

9.16  Messaging with Telegram Apps…………………………………………………………………………… 93

9.17  Instance Messaging, voice /video calling :……………………………………………………………… 93

9.18  Uses of national media outlets and Community Radio…………………………………………….. 93

9.19  Some simplified users of MHEWS………………………………………………………………………… 94

10.0 Conclusion and Recommendations 95

Acronym

ACMAD                                           African Centre of Meteorological Application for Development

ACPC                                               African Climate Policy Centers

AEMET                                            The State Meteorological Agency 

AfDB                                               African Development Bank

AMM                                              Africa Media Monitor 

ANECA                                            Agencia Nacional de Evaluación de la Calidad y Acreditación

AU                                                   African Union

AUC                                                 African Union Commission

CBO                                                 Community Based Organization 

CCDU                                              Climate change & desertification Unit

CDSF                                               Climate Development Special Fund 

CEMAC                                           Economic and Monetary Community of Central Africa

CEN–SAD                                        Community of Sahel–Saharan States 

CILSS                                                Interstate Committee for Drought Monitoring in the Sahel

SIMMS                                            The Cooperative Institute for Mesoscale Meteorological Studies

COMESA                                         Common Market for Eastern and Southern Africa 

CPC                                                  Climate Prediction Center

CSIS                                                 Climate Services Information System

CSO                                                 Civil Services Organizations 

CW                                                   Continental Watch

DCPC                                               Data Collection or Processing Center

DRM                                                Disaster Risk Management

DRR                                                 Disaster Risk Reduction 

EAC                                                  East African Community 

EAMAC                                           African School of Meteorology and Civil Aviation

ECA                                                  Economic Commission of Africa

ECCAS                                             Economic Community of Central African States 

ECMWF                                           European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts

ECOWAS                                         Economic Community of West African States

EMI                                                  European Meteorological Infrastructure

EOC                                                 Emergency Operations Center

EUMETSAT                                     European Union Meteorological Satellite

EWEA                                              Early Warning for Early Action 

EWS                                                 Early Warning System

FY2E /FY2G/ Fengyun-4B            Meteorological satellite Fengyun-4B

GFCS                                                Global Framework for Climate Services

GFCS                                                Global Framework for Climate Services

GLOFAS                                           Global Flood Awareness System

GOES                                               Geostationary Operational Environmental Satellites (GOES)

GOESW/ GOESE                            The Geostationary Operational Environmental Satellite

GTS                                                  Global Telecommunication System

ICPAC                                               IGAD Climate Prediction and Application Center

ICRISAT                                            International Crops Research Institute for the Semi-Arid Tropics

ICT                                                   Information and communication technology

IFRC                                                 International Federation of Red Cross

IGAD                                  Intergovernmental Authority on Development

IGAD                                  Intergovernmental Authority on Development 

IPCC                                     Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change

IRD                                      Institut de Recherche pour le Dévéloppement

IRI                              International Research Institute for Climate and Society

JASON2                     The Jason-2/3 and Ocean Surface Topography Mission

LSAF                             Satellite Application Facility on Land Surface Analysis

METOP                    Meteorological Operational Satellite Program of Europe

MFI                                                       Meteo France International

MHEWS                                       Multi-Hazard Early Warning System

MODIS                           Moderate Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer

MS                                                                    Member States

MSG – AFR                                Meteosat Second Generation (MSG)

MSG- IODC          Meteosat Second Generation  Indian Ocean Data Coverage

MSGAFR- MPEF Meteosat Meteorological Product Extraction Facility (MPEF)

NBA                                                            Niger Basin Authority

NDMO                               National Disaster Management Organizations

NGO                                                  Non Government Organzation  

NGO                                                 Non Government Organizations 

NHMS                            National Hydrological and Meteorological Services 

NMHS                            National Meteorological and Hydrological Services

NOAA                            National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration

OCHA             United Nations Office for the Coordination of Humanitarian Affairs

PoA                                                             Programme of Action 

PUMA                                 Preparation for the Use of Meteosat in Africa

RARS                                     Regional Advanced Retransmission System

RCC                                                          Regional Climate Center

RCOFs                                            Regional Climate Outlook Forums

RDT                                                Rapidly Developing Thunderstorm 

RDT                                                  Rapid Developing Thunderstorm 

RECs                                                Regional Economic Communities

RSMC                                    Regional Specialized Meteorological Center

SADC                                    Southern African Development Community 

SARAL                                               Satellite with ARgos and ALtiKa

SAWIDRA      Satellite and Weather Information for Disaster Resilience in Africa

SDG                                                  Sustainable Development Goals

SFDRR                                Sendai Framework for Disaster Risk Reduction 

SoD                                                     Standing Orders on Disasters

SOPs                                                 Standard Operating Procedures

UKMO                                                    UK Meteorological Office

EMI                                    European Meteorological Infrastructure (EMI)

UMA                                                           Arab Maghreb Union 

UN                                                           United Nations Agencies

UNDP                                     United Nations Development Programme 

UNECA                             United Nations Economic Commission for Africa

VITO                                                Belgium Remote Sensing Satellite

WHO                                                     World Heath Organizaiton 

WIS                           World Meteorological Organization  Information System 

WMO                                           World Meteorological  Organization

WMS                                                  Weather Monitoring Services

1.0  Chapter: Introduction and Objective 

Climate risks and vulnerabilities over the African continent are being characterized as multifaceted and climate extremes are increasingly growing as rapid on-set events. The weather and climate system over the continents becoming an erratic pattern as increasing temperatures, changing precipitation patterns and more extreme weather are threatening human health and safety, food and water security, and socio-economic development in Africa. Improving climate risk governance and coordination across the institutions & stakeholders, and putting strategic Disaster Risk Reduction (DRR) mechanisms in place is becoming the priority issue.   

Recognizing the looming consequences of climate extremes, the establishment of a Multi-Hazard Early Warning System (MHEWS) for the African Union regions is recognized as the cornerstone for addressing the impacts and being prepared for the impending hazards. Essentially, African Union (AU) member states developed a new Programme of Action (PoA) for the implementation of MHEWS by aligning the Sendai Framework for Disaster Risk Reduction (SFDRR) 2015-2030  mandates for reducing the substantial reduction of disaster risk and losses in lives, livelihoods, health, the economies, assets (physical, social, cultural and environmental), businesses, communities and countries as a whole. The robust and innovative Early Warning Systems (EWS), will be enabled stakeholders and individuals for getting prepared for responding to the climate extremes. Prevailing the current set of climatic perturbations and to tackle to impacts, the duty bearer, the stakeholders, and the actors on the ground need for improved understanding of disaster risk in all its dimensions of exposure, vulnerability, and hazard characteristics; the strengthening of disaster risk governance, including national platforms; accountability for disaster risk management; preparedness to “Build Back Better”.

1.2   Objective of the establishment of Multi-Hazard Early Warning System (MHEWS)

African Union (AU) and its sub-organs needs readily available tailor-made risks informed tools for readiness to comprehensive disaster risk management, manifesting the policy implications at the supply side for improving disaster risk governance and risk-informed sustainable development planning. Objectives of the MHEWS as follows;

1. Establish an agile and interactive early warning systems at all levels to facilitate mitigation, response and recovery to increasing frequency and intensity of natural hazards.
2. Strengthen Africa’s participation in global weather and climate programs; 
3. Generating early warning on national leadership and disseminating Early warnings of impending hazards to  relevant stakeholders, DRM focal points, humanitarian actors, vulnerable communities, individuals for getting them prepared for the impending disasters.
4. Instrumentalizing AUC to being enabled to provide prompt advisories on early actions to undertaken by the AUC organs, sub-organs, continental, regional body and national focal points for preparedness, response, recovery of impending natural disasters.
5. Analyzing data from the recent disasters already occurred  such as  cyclone, flood , flash flood, on the continent, and hazards such as droughts, floods, tropical storms and cyclones, pests and epidemics have constantly affected more than one country simultaneously. Even where such hazards occur locally, the severity in which these events have manifested could easily overwhelm localized response.
6. Acquisition of weather parameters observation and forecast data, analyses with myDEWETRA platform, interpreting risk information relevant to impact based Early Warning for the taking early actions to stakeholders.
7. EWS for Early Action and Trans-boundary Risk Management.
8. Establish data coordination mechanism among African countries for improve access to climate information and services.
9. Encourages African States to strengthen their early warning systems, including multi-hazard and impact based early warning with priority on hydrological and meteorological systems and the delivery of services

in understandable manner to end-users for enhanced preparedness, response, recovery and reconstruction’.

1. UNDRR collaborated with the AU Commission and other partners to mobilize resources for the establishment of Multi-Hazard Early Warning System (MHEWS). 11)  

3.0  Current structure and Process of ACMAD

ACMAD is a WMO Regional Climate Centre with capabilities to provide services for Disaster Risk Reduction. ACMAD was established to act as a continental reference center in meteorology and to promote its applications for the development of Africa. It was created in 1987 by the Conference of Ministers of the United Nations Economic Commission for Africa (UNECA) and the World Meteorological Organisation (WMO). ACMAD has been operational in Niamey since 1992. ACMAD is composed of 53 Member States, the 53 countries of the “Africa” continent. To ensure its mission, ACMAD functions primarily with meteorologists detached by its Members States.

The Centre is headed by the Director-General (DG)  and the core service deliveries of the centers are to develop evidence-based weather, climate, water and related environmental information are essential for the implementation of SDGs and AU agenda 2063, is mandated to operate as the African RCC according to WMO international standards and positioning for climate action and governance over the continental level. ACMAD having over  34 years of experience in weather, climate, and related environmental services for planning and action and develop specialized weather forecasts, weather outlooks for supporting risk-informed development in Africa. ACAMD supports all Africa Union member countries for capacity building of the meteorologist by imparting on-job training and secondment.

ACAMD role has become essential for the implementation of Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs), the Paris Agreement, and the Sendai Framework for Disaster Risk Reduction in Africa, therefore, contributing to the African strategy on meteorology and the agenda 2063 of the African Union on “the Africa we want”. The need for enhanced and urgent climate action and governance on water, food, and energy security has been recognized at the highest global, continental and regional political levels.

International climate finance available for Africa is increasing, yet the continent has insufficient capacity to effectively access it. ACMAD has been sustained by a few member states’ contributions. In addition, since UNECA is considered the mature state of ACMAD, there is a need to improve governance and management systems to adequately handle its continental mandate. The previous ACMAD strategy (2010-2015) made some significant contributions but there is a need to develop a new strategy (2020-2023)^[1] to address the current realities.

3.1 About ACMAD:

Who :

ACMAD was created in 1985 through resolution 540 of the  UNECA Conference of Ministers of Economy and Finance for the purpose of acting as continental weather /climate watch and center of  excellence for the applications of meteorology for development.

What :

This continental center enables provision of weather/climate monitoring, forecasts and reginal early warning on drought, tropical cyclones and other extreme weather /climate events

It builds capacity, develops methods and tools, strengthens Africa’s contribution to global weather and climate prorammes, establishes and shares database and undertakes research in meteorology.

How:

ACMAD provides products, information, knowledge, advices, methods and tools competencies and capabilities contributing to the implementation of the agenda 2063  of the AU, the African strategies on climate change , disaster risk reduction, and relevant sustainable development goals with emphasis

on goal # 13 on combating climate change. ACAMD enables NMHSs to benefit from funded programmes through continental projects with NMHSs as the main target group. 

Why :

Whether and climate events has been identified as the most likely and impactful hazards on the economy and society. The economic impacts of recent droughts in Africa (i.e. 2015 ) and reached 2% of Gross Domestic Product in some African countries reducing by half hydropower production. National Meteorological and Hydrological Services (NMHSs) lack capacity to better prepare and deliver information required to increase resilience to disasters and adapt to climate change. ACMAD is requested to build capacity of NMHSs and regional centers to provide weather and climate services to reduce disaster impacts. It provides continental scale forecasts, advices and warning to the African Union., Regional Economic Communities ( RECS) and humanitarian organization’s for the contingency plans update and implementation.

3.2 ACMAD Vision :

To be a world class continental operational centre of excellence supporting all African countries to be well resilient to extreme events with increased ability to adapt to climate change impacts.

[1] http://154.66.220.45:8080/thredds/catalog/ACMAD/DG/statutorydocs/catalog.html 

3.3 ACMAD Major Areas of Interventions :

1. The role is to operate as Regional Climate Center of Africa
2. Mandate over the 54 countries 
3. Support to run Regional Climate Outlook Forums(RCOFs)
4. Coordination with the African Union, African Union Commission, and other relevant pan-African bodies (e.g. Pan-African parliament)
5. Capacity support to RCCs for them to play a full role as RCC (capacity transfer, schedule, and plan)
6. Maintenance of Pan-African hydro-met database, and baseline count of observation networks in Africa
7. Continental Weather and Climate Modeling Impact modeling
8. User-tailored services at the continental scale

3.4 ACMAD Organogram:

Figure 1 : ACMAD Organogram 

3.5 ACMAD capacity improvement programme for the stakeholders :

1. Improved capacity to deliver “tailored” Weather & climate information services and products 
2. Improved capacity in the user community to effectively use and demand weather/climate information.
3. Increased awareness and demand of weather & climate risk management techniques
4. Improved contribution to effective early warning and response systems for climate‐related hazards

(Vulnerability aspects, relations with SNMHS, Regional Centers, CILSS,FEWSNET, IFRC, UNICEF…. )

• Improved communications and dialogue with Medias
• Specialized training to relevant professional and development practitioners in Africa;
• Appropriate research, data, and networking facilities  to research programmes in Africa.

3.7  Current product and services

Table 1: Several products being produced by ACMAD 

3.8 ACMAD role as continental impact-based multi-hazard advisory center  

The setup of a multi-hazard advisory center  at ACMAD center is expected to be improving impact-based multihazard early warning system, analysis of extreme weather forecasts and multi-hazards with myDEWETRA and analytical GIS tools, and develop riks informed weather and climate information service delivery for the promotion of sustainable development of Africa. The improved continental advisory center  will be able to provide support services for analysis of the extreme weather-induced multi-hazards exposures, risks, and vulnerabilities over the vulnerable sectors, vulnerable groups, and risk-informed development tools for the decision-making process.

Pertinent to performing the technical early warning operations and standard operation of the continental advisory center   ACMAD will be able to produce extreme weather based continental   watch (CW )  with the fixed schedule agreed for the continent 

The second part of the process of continental advisory center  to supplement AUC an event Situation Report (abbreviated as SitRep) highlighting the standing conditions of an on-set of just the disasters triggered by extreme weather events, over the ongoing or potentially be impending hazard events, (e.g., an approaching Tropical Cyclone), the incrementally to intensifying of flooding situation or fresh flooding to down streams territories, etc. SitRep should be prepared immediately after the disaster event (or in advance in case of any hydro-meteorological events, e.g. Tropical Cyclones) or pre-emptive to trigger a hazard event to disaster.  

The African Union commission continental advisory center  will be responsible for the collection of information, analysis of the information, and dissemination of the reports to all stakeholders or the general public when deemed to do so.

3.9 Different products of impact-based early warning

ACMAD expected to serving following products for the purposes of impact-based early warning ; a) Continental Watch

3.10   CIMA Foundation Technical Supports for ACMAD

The CIMA foundation will support procurement of infrastructures ( hardware and software)  for risk analysis hazard monitoring and forecasting, prevention, preparation and response planning as component of MHEWS. Specific support for risk profile and assessment is expected. 

3.11   Support from AUC Africa Media Monitor (AMM) on communication  for  emergency  operational planning

ACMAD  need to establish communication  with Africa Media Monitor (AMM) at AUC to develop the catalogue of what  the demand-driven climate-informed tools for disaster operational planning, e.g. what type of forecast will be supportive for emergency preparedness, response, and recovery planning.

3.12   Updating  of emergency operational plan and implementation   

Based on monitoring and forecasting products disaster management and civil protection body will be responsible for preparing , updating and implementation of emergency plans.

3.13   ACMAD status of Rapid on-set extreme weather forecasting

ACMAD providing RDT, nowcasting (hourly to 24 hours), dust storm etc. For the rapid on-set weather forecasting,

A Daily Severe Weather Forecast Bulletin with continent-wide coverage and valid for 3 days;  

3.14 Coordination mechanism of data exchange(inter-operability) 

ACMAD primary role is to acess to data , collection , data process , develop products, dissemination capacity. ACMAD provide continental watch, develop multiple meteorological products and services and tailoring for policy and planning desk for the risk-informed development planning process for the continental actors. 

With having functional interoperability with other regional meteorological centers (RCC) , this center can have access to WMO regional focused centers for building a repository of data hubs for the continent under the WMO protocol. For strengthening the data repository, AMCAD need to have a coherent institutional linkage for following WMO centers; 

• ACMAD coordination mechanism with other WMO designated RSMC/RCC for data sharing. 
• Establish coordination mechanisms for data exchange with Data Collection or Production Centre (DCPC) e.g. Casablanca
• Coordination with WMO Information System (WIS) for developing and sharing global catalog services on weather information service, data exchange, management, and processing. 
• Establish coordination EUMETCast for improving access to nowcasting services.
• Establish coordination with Regional Climate Outlook Forums (RCOFs) to produce consensus-based, user-relevant climate outlook products in real-time to reduce climate-related risks and support sustainable development.

3.15 ACMAD stakeholders, partners are benefitting from ACMAD delivered services

A wide range of partners are benefitting from ACMAD delivered services;  

Figure 2 : ACMAD stakeholder map 

ACMAD have coordination with the following regional hubs and entities ;

• Regional Climate Outlook Forums (RCOFs), ECCAS
• New Partnership for Africa’s Development
• (NEPAD), the African Development Bank (AfDB),  the World Bank, various intergovernmental organizations (IGOs). 
• Various humanitarian agencies — including the International Federation of Red Cross and Red Crescent Societies (IFRC), the 
• UN Agencies: UNDRR, World Food Programme (WFP), the UN Office for the Coordination of Humanitarian Affairs (UNOCHA), UNDP, UNDP, United Nations Children’s Fund (UNICEF), the UN International Strategy for Disaster Reduction (UNISDR)
• EUMETSAT, WMO, Regional and sub-regional partners
• Commission, the EU Delegations, and relevant International Organizations.
• Academia, R & Organzations 

Benefitting Sectors of the continent;

• Agriculture and food security
• Water resource
• Energy production and distribution
• Public health
• Disaster risk reduction and response
• Outreach and communication
• Other sectors such as tourism, transportation, urban planning, etc. are increasingly involved.

4.0   Establishment of an Integrated and impact-based Muti-hazard Continental Advisory Center at ACMAD

UNDRR in collaboration with the African Union Commission (AUC) two designated regional climate centers (RCC)  e.g. ACAMD and IGAD Climate Prediction and Application Center(ICPAC) partners to mobilize resources for the establishment of Multi-Hazard Early Warning System (MHEWS). Consequently, the Government of Italy financed UNDRR to support the establishment of Multi-Hazard Early Warning System (MHEWS) at continental level and pilot Regional Economic Committees (RECs)  under the project entitled “Establishment of the impact-based early warning for early action and trans-boundary risk management function of the African Union” currently being under implementation.

 The project intended to install their Continental advisory center  at ACMAD, AUC, and ICPAC   for developing impact-based early warnings and dissemination of informed tools to Regional Economic Communities (RECs) and the Member States, vulnerable sectors, emergency management organizations (focal Point) national hydrometeorological Service organizations (NHMS), humanitarian actors, vulnerable communities could impact by impending disasters. 

4.1 Upgraded Muti-hazard Continental Advisory Center (Continental advisory center ):

Facilitate the establishment of a continental impact based EWS for Early Action and transboundary risk management through:

• Develop customized warnings on impending multi-hazards
• Developing specialized tools/ maps (GIS-based spatial analysis ) with giving the extent of areas potentially be impacted with advisories on impending  (real-time) extreme hydrometeorological hazards those can potentially be impacted over and can cause damages to lives and properties.
• Establishment of a standard continental advisory center  with having communications tools and common web-based platform and Standard Operating Procedures.
• Develop coordinate mechanism of data exchange at the continental and regional level
• Install myDEWETRA Open source platform at ACMAD for the operation exchange of information through access to real-time observation, forecasting, and other customized datasets for comprehensively analysis of risk and vulnerabilities and dissemination of early warnings and maps and tools. 
• Integrating ACMAD forecasting product with myDEWETRA platform
• Provide input to AUC continental advisory center  for developing Continental Watch (CW), event situation reports, and other multi-hazard advisories for immediate disaster risk-informed decision making.  

4.2 CIMA Foundation Technical Supports for ACMAD

The core object of the project is to support ACMAD through the CIMA Research Foundation by providing technical support to set up the establishment of the Multi-Hazard Early Warning System (MHEWS) to provide impact-based early warnings for undertaking early actions and develop informed tools to facilitate transboundary climate risk management functions of the African Union. 

The activities are envisaged under the establishment of MHEWS to set up a 24/7 continental advisory center  at ACMAD center and the African Union Commission (AUC), is connected with three regional centers of the continent. The continental advisory center s are functioning and facilitating the exchange, monitoring, and analysis of meteorological data and risk-related information, based on the open-source platform myDEWETRA platform, developed by CIMA (CIMA Research Foundation) and owned by the Department of Civil Protection. 

As ACMAD mandated for promoting meteorological services for supporting climate risk-informed development of African region. To strengthen impact based the multi-hazard early warning and enhance the capacity for data exchange and coordination among national, regional, and continental actors CIMA foundation extended technical support upgrading the warning system. 

The technical supports are envisaged under the establishment of MHEWS to set up a 24/7 continental advisory center  at ACMAD center with the installation of the open-source platform myDEWETRA platform which was developed by CIMA Research Foundation and owned by the Department of Civil Protection. Technically, the platform encompasses multiple weathers satellite-based integrated remotely sensed hydro-meteorological data capture, data processing, and providing observations of weather parameters, multi-hazards forecasting, and model analysis. In the context of current erratic climatic phenomena, it overserved that the hydrometeorological events are mostly transforming to rapid-onset while interacting over the ground. As result, the alert systems need to be upgraded with robust tools. Considering the growing weather and climatic perturbations CIMA supports extended for setting up the standardized continental advisory center  that would be able to function and facilitate the exchange, monitoring, and analysis of meteorological data and risk-related information to end-users.

4.3 Installation and operationalization of myDEWETRA platform

myDEWETRA 2.0^[1] is an open-source online platform for Earth System observation and prediction over meteorological observation, weather forecasting, earth observation, hydro-meteorological modeling, and geospatial multi-hazard risk/vulnerability analysis.    The platform allows registered users to access datasets and to integrated data, regardless of the provider. The application manages, in fact, both the data provided by the National System of Functional Centres and the territorial and geospatial ones published as WMS services by other platforms. The platform can load and display geo-referenced static and dynamic layers and allows the endusers to browse the values of each gauging station and other more advanced observational tools, offering interactive tools and features for the analysis of ongoing and past events.

The myDEWETRA 2.0 to be installed with a Linux CentOS server with the ICT support from CIMA experts in the specialized situation at ACAMD premises for providing improved access to meteorological inputs, products, and services. UNDRR expert from ACMAD supported for installation of the platform. 

4.4  Hydrometeorological analytical tools for MHEW Continental advisory center :

The proposed continental advisory center  is expected to be the integration of the current set of weather watch instruments with newly proposed data capturing and analytical tools e.g. myDEWETRA, GLOFAS, EUMETCast, etc., for making ACMAD a robust center for weather watching, multi-hazard forecasting, multi-hazard exposure, risk and vulnerability analysis, and multi-hazard Early Warnings dissemination center. 

4.5   Proposed activities for the multi-hazard risk and vulnerability analysis: 

1. Developing short-range Multi-hazard Risk analysis Map & Advisories: Analysis of the critical extreme weather parameters, that lead to different onset multi-hazards by analyzing all the forecast bulletins with GIS applications and develop a GIS risk map by showcasing the extent of areas being impacted or could be impacted over the next few days. 

• Develop Monthly Multi-hazard outlooks maps and advisories: Develop decadal and monthly multihazard risk with special emphasis given to vulnerable socio-economic sectors, identifying vulnerable pockets where food security and livelihood sectors could largely be impacted.  Develop sectors specific multi-hazards analysis over the continent at general, then RECs, States level multi-hazard exposure, risk & vulnerability maps.

[1] https://wikisrv.cimafoundation.org/index.php?title=User_Guide 

1. Develop sector-specific multi-hazard exposed map: Analysis of weather anomalies of the monthly, 3/4/6 monthly (change of weather parameters, e.g. rainfall in unseasonably, high temperatures, heatwave, dry spells, high humidity, strong winds, dust storm etc.)  and determine and how those anomalies impacted for the lifeline sectors e.g. agriculture, water sectors, public health, environment and forest, social & livelihoods, etc., by analyzing with GIS tools and showcasing the extent of areas over the continental, REC region, and country-level and provide necessary advisories. 

• Develop sector-specific multi-hazard exposed analytical maps for the year. Analyzing the whole year of the climatology of the continent and then prepare climate-vulnerable sector-specific GIS maps and advisories for risk-informed planning. 

4.6   Proposed coordination mechanism of data exchange at the continental and regional level 

ACMAD primarily intended to establish a continental advisory center provide continental watch ( weather forecasting) to AUC. ACMAD as a continental body can incentivize the multiple meteorological products and services for tailoring to support policy and planning desk for the riskinformed development planning process for the continental actors. UNDRR supports this center already supporting AUC with customized weather information and services data sources to make publicly available to interoperable formats. ACMAD can further play an important role to encourage the member countries to incentivized the spatial risk information by the regional, national, and local authorities with higher-level or data desegregation for sectoral risk analysis and developing the coherent institutional linkage and within the guideline of Sendai Framework. 

The overall objectives of this coordination and exchange mechanism are to strengthen the AUC’s pivotal roles in establishing and improving the mechanism of dissemination of severe weather forecasts, facilitate interactive and effective communication, coordination for exchange of disaster emergency data and information on on-set disaster events at the local level, and subsequently preparing an event situation report on the occasion of disaster being declared by the Member states. 

Level of  institutional strengthening process;

• Establish ACMAD coordination mechanism with other WMO designated RSMC/RCC for data sharing. 
• Establish coordination mechanisms for data exchange with Data Collection or Production Centre (DCPC) e.g. Casablanca
• Coordination with WMO Information System (WIS) for developing and sharing global catalog services on weather information service, data exchange, management, and processing. 
• Establish coordination EUMETCast for improving access to nowcasting services.
• Establish coordination with Regional Climate Outlook Forums (RCOFs) to produce consensusbased, user-relevant climate outlook products in real-time to reduce climate-related risks and support sustainable development.

5.0 UNDRR support for establishment of Muti-hazard Continental Advisory Center 

UNDRR has undertaken activities to develop Continental advisory center  at the African Center of Meteorological Applications for Development (ACMAD), African Union Commission (AUC), and IGAD Climate Prediction and Application Center (ICPAC) being envisioned for comprehensive Disaster Risk Management (DRM) with the given priority of risk-informed preparedness plans, and, response, and post-disaster recovery and reconstruction mechanisms.  The standard continental advisory center  is required for the establishment of agile and interactive early warning systems at all levels to facilitate mitigation, response, and recovery to increasing frequency and intensity of natural hazards.

Continental advisory center  at the ACMAD and simultaneously being linked and interacting with other prioritized centers e.g. African Union Commission (AUC), and the ICPAC. The center functional aspects of the warning center in how myDEWETRA & EUMETCast tools shall be facilitating in real-time and time-span hydro-meteorological data to be integrated, collecting, processing, real-time risk analysis and supporting multi-hazard risk-informed tools to AUC, its organs, and Member States(MS), and Disaster Risk Management Authorities at the continent level. 

The goal of designing the ACMAD warning center to leverage the development of the strategic tool and upgrading  ACMAD led time-series weather observation, forecasting, rapidly developing thunderstorm (RDT) and real-time based other multi-hazard early warning products in more upgraded ways by defining the approach. 

For developing impact based multi-hazard maps, we need to append weather forecasts map with the GIS software to analyze the indicative weather impacts over the other geospatial features (settlements, agricultural lands, physical infrastructures & communication networks, natural resource elements, built-up physical installations, vulnerable pockets,  standing croplands, freshwater bodies, etc.). In these aspects, ACMAD needs to have geospatial shapefiles from member countries) for analyzing geographical areas of extent falling in exposure, risk, vulnerabilities of impending muti-hazards.

5.1  Enhance the capacity of ACMAD in multi-hazard risk-informed tool development 

The setup of a multi-hazard situation at ACMAD center is expected to be improving impact-based multi-hazard early warning system, analysis of extreme weather forecasts and multi-hazards with myDEWETRA and analytical GIS tools, and develop riks informed weather and climate information service delivery for the promotion of sustainable development of Africa. The improved continental advisory center  will be able to provide support services for analysis of the extreme weather-induced multi-hazards exposures, risks, and vulnerabilities over the vulnerable sectors, vulnerable groups, and risk-informed development tools for the decision-making process.

Pertinent to performing the technical early warning operations and standard operation of the continental advisory center   ACMAD will be able to produce extreme weather based continental   watch (CW )  with the fixed schedule agreed for the continent 

The second part of the process of continental advisory center  to supplement AUC an event Situation Report (abbreviated as SitRep) highlighting the standing conditions of an on-set of just the disasters triggered by extreme weather events, over the ongoing or potentially be impending hazard events, (e.g., an approaching Tropical Cyclone), the incrementally to intensifying of flooding situation or fresh flooding to down streams territories, etc. SitRep should be prepared immediately after the disaster event (or in advance in case of any hydro-meteorological events, e.g. Tropical Cyclones) or pre-emptive to trigger a hazard event to disaster.  

The African Union commission continental advisory center  will be responsible for the collection of information, analysis of the information, and dissemination of the reports to all stakeholders or the general public when deemed to do so.

5.2 The objective of upgrading the ACMAD Muti-hazard Continental Advisory Center :

Facilitate the establishment of a continental impact based EWS for Early Action and transboundary risk management through:

• Develop customized advisory and watches on impending multi-hazards
• Developing specialized tools/ maps (GIS-based spatial analysis ) with giving the extent of areas potentially be impacted with advisories on impending  (real-time) extreme hydrometeorological hazards those can potentially be impacted over and can cause damages to lives and properties.
• Establishment of a standard situation room with having communications tools and common web-based platform and Standard Operating Procedures.
• Develop coordinate mechanism of data exchange at the continental and regional level
• Install myDEWETRA Open source platform at ACMAD for the operation exchange of information through access to real-time observation, forecasting, and other customized datasets for comprehensively analysis of risk and vulnerabilities and dissemination of early warnings and maps and tools. 
• Integrating ACMAD forecasting product with myDEWETRA platform
• Provide input to AUC situation room for developing Continental Watch (CW), event situation reports, and other multi-hazard advisories for immediate disaster risk-informed decision making.  

6.0  ICT structures of ACMAD Weather Watch Center:

Weather watch, tracking extreme weather, processing forecast, analyzing impacts of forecasts and multi-hazards and timely dissemination of the warnings remote community, etc., essentially depend on Information and communication technology (ICT), hardware and software integrated system.   The standard design of ACMAD warning center (Continental advisory center  ) being targeted for   24/7 operability with an integrated system. Making system robust architecture, so that, it can be lined with live weather observation data from satellites, connecting with processed data hub (myDEWETRA), Global Flood Awareness System, drought, cyclone, fire, volcano, tsunami, etc., system and having common multi-hazard alerting and dissemination system.  

Considering the African rapidly changing climatic phenomena and the extreme weather events recurrently impacting the continent with rapid on-set multi-hazard modality. The precision level weather forecasting, multihazard early warning are deemed the most challenging jobs.  In addition to the existing ICT structures and facilities of ACMAD the proposed new situation will be able to promote meteorological services for supporting climate risk-informed development of the African region. ICT is supposed to play important role in strengthening impact based on the multi-hazard early warning and enhance the capacity for data exchange and coordination among national, regional, and continental actors CIMA foundation extended technical support upgrading the warning system. 

Reviewing the current setup and identifying the indicative gaps of early warning service deliveries, the technical supports are to be envisaged by the establishment of an open-ended platform and inclusive participation of multi-stakeholders with both way trafficked information outflow to the early warnings in a timlely manner and to set up a 24/7 continental advisory center  at MHEWS at ACMAD center with the installation of open-source platform myDEWETRA which was developed by CIMA Research Foundation and owned by the Department of Civil Protection. Technically, the platform encompasses multiple weather satellite-based integrated remotely sensed hydro-meteorological data capture, data processing and providing observations of weather parameters, multi-hazards forecasting, and model analysis.

6.1 Components of ACMAD Center

1. PUMA^[1] Nowcasting Station  :

Under the current ICT structures of ACMAD watch center having the active link of PUMA 2015(Preparation for the Use of Meteosat in Africa) station which is installed under the  MESA (Monitoring for Environment and Security in Africa ) project which is supported by MFI ( Meteo France International) provided real-time forecasting systems of the  EUMETCast dataflow.

[1] http://www.mfi.fr/en/news–detail/an–all–in–one–aviation–solution–for–the–asecna.php  

Figure 3: Current telecommunication setup of ACMAD 

1. Global Telecommunication System (GTS) Link with Airport  

With ACMAD is accessing the global datasets though GTS . 

3 ) Regional Advanced Retransmission System (RARS) Station Setup under SAWIDRA Project :

With support from satellite and Weather Information for Disaster Resilience in Africa (SAWIDRA) project ACMAD collects polar orbiting satellite data  to be  used  for global and regional data assimilation in numerical weather prediction. 

6.2 Proposed additional infrastructures & tools   for data access and process services 

Weather observation (satellite based and WMO synoptic station based ) Classified  datasets essentially required multiple analysis to develop different range forecasting products and meteorological and climatological services. After review of the existing system the following indicative gaps  has been identified and recurrent solutions given in the below table; 

Table 2 : System Proposed additional infrastructures Instrumental and tools gaps of ACMAD watch center& tools   for data access and process services

Real-time early warning dissemination required a geospatial platform (preferably opensource) and with the realtime pop-up messing interface and also android based apps ( web convert to apps )  downloadable from google play by the users to have the real-time popup of multi-hazard & disaster events over the online system. ACMAD still to harmonize this option. 

For developing impact based multi-hazard maps, we need to append weather forecasts map with the GIS software to analyze the indicative weather impacts over the other geospatial features (settlements, agricultural lands, physical infrastructures & communication networks, natural resource elements, built-up physical installations, vulnerable pockets,  standing croplands, freshwater bodies, etc.) . In these aspects, ACMAD need to have geospatial shapefiles from member countries) for analyzing geographical areas of extent falling in  exposure, risk, vulnerabilities of impending muti-hazards.

By reviewing the ACMAD ICT system, it appears that the center having linkage with PUMA station and can have access to Meteorological Satellites images for real-time weather observations and also having Thredds sever application for accessing weather observations services from USA (NOAA) based climate prediction center (CPC), Meteo France for tracking Rapid Developing Thunderstorm (RDT) and another rapidly developed weather system. 

6.2   PUMA Nowcasting input satellites, types, and functions :

Table 3: PUMA Nowcasting input satellites, types, and functions  

[1] https://www.eumetsat.int/our–satellites/meteosat–series  

[2] https://www.eumetsat.int/indian–ocean–data–coverage–iodc

6.3    The main component  Muti-hazard Continental Advisory Center (Continental advisory center ) 

As ACMAD mandates are concerned the center having portfolios for providing meteorological services as informed tools for sustainable development and climate resilience building at the continent level. The center is already equipped with PUMA, GTS, and RARS stations and having access to satellitebased atmospheric parameters observation & analysis and synoptic weather observations over the ground. ACMAD traditionally focuses on time-series products generation and giving importance to the impact based forecasting products. But fundamentally, Climate change is having a growing impact on the African continent, hitting the most vulnerable hardest, and contributing to food insecurity, population displacement, and stress on water resources . The mean annual temperature rise over Africa, relative to the late 20th century mean annual temperature, is likely to exceed 2°C  which is expected to lead the severe weather events of diverse climatic patterns. Recurrent weather anomalies over sub-Saharan Africa and extreme weather events in any given season of the continent lead onset of internal and external migration, serious food insecurity. The ACMAD continental advisory center  remains to be linked with other  Continental advisory center  of AUC(EOC), ICPAC, RECs, AU suborgans, Member States, and beyond.

Figure 4:  ACMAD Continental Advisory  Center 

1. Installation and activation of myDEWETR : Over the given circumstances of extreme weather events, and impact-based early warning with continental scale and beyond being intended by the UNDRR. With CIMA research foundation support, installation, and configuration myDEWETRA geospatial platform & GLOFAS under implementation. This platform is multifaceted, open-ended, and interactive to designated users/stakeholders for products customization, sharing, and dissemination facilities. Having some useful key features on hydro-meteorological weather observations, multi-hazard forecasting, customized features on risk and vulnerabilities on vulnerable elements & population, basic infrastructures, and services. myDEWETRA having alerting protocol that can be father customized to disseminating real-time alerts with apps-based alerting ( web converting to app) over the android system. 

• Installation of EUMETCast (updated) : New EUMETCast Africa service is being renovated by removing the old satellite and linking with  EUTELSAT 8 West^[1] . Since 1 May 2018 EUTELSAT 8W has been used for the new EUMETCast Africa service. ACMAD intended to install a new version of  EUMETCast for having access to new data sources.

• Installation GloFAS  : From 2018, the Global Flood Awareness System (GloFAS)^[2]  under the European Commission’s Copernicus Emergency Management Service is operational for forecasting and monitoring floods across the world.  GloFAS prediction only focuses on rivers with ongoing and upcoming flood events, the evolution of streamflow forecasts is provided at reporting points on flash flood risk or coastal flooding.  GloFAS data are freely accessible to all registered users through a dedicated web platform, the GloFAS map viewer. Detailed evolution of streamflow forecasts is provided at reporting points. 

• Updated PUMA nowcasting Station: ACMAD having access to weather observation and monitoring PUMA 2015( Currently having to upgrade version 2020), which can provide around 12 Satellites capturing data covering across the  Europe African, and the Indian Ocean and supplying satellite image, synoptic data for time-series weather observation, monitoring, and forecasting. 

• Thredds Server^[3] : Linux platform-based web server that provides metadata and data access for scientific datasets, using OPeNDAP, OGC WMS , and WCS, HTTP, and other remote data access protocols. Thredds dataset inventory Catalogs are being generated dynamically. This server access the NetCDF-Java/CDM library and processes multiple products. Currently, this server proving observation updates about Rapidly Developing Thunder Strom(RDT) every 15  minutes with Geo JSON format mapping format. 

• GFS 5 days, weekly, WW3 consecutive 7 days precipitation accumulation: GFS 5 days, weekly,  GFS  WW3 7 days precipitation ( accumulation ) forecast and point( station) based warnings warning with showing threshold of danger level. Depending on the threshold of consecutive daily accumulation (mm) the system automatically provide color-coded  thresholds for the point-based warning as following;   

[1] https://www.eumetsat.int/new–eumetcast–africa–service 

[2] https://www.globalfloods.eu/general–information/about–glofas/ 

[3] https://www.unidata.ucar.edu/software/tds/current/ 

• Rapidly Developing Thunderstorm (RTD)^[1] : Rapidly Developing Thunder Strom(RDT) in every 15  minutes with Geo JSON format mapping format. Meteo France Rapidly Developing Thunderstorm

[1] Meteo France

(RDT), is an important tool for tracking the rapidly developing weather system at the growth, mature, and decay stage. This tool provides useful parameters of a weather system e.g. location, area of extent, duration of the system, stages, severity level, moving direction, the status of cloud phase, expansion rate, etc., which are very important for analyzing the nowcasting.  

1. Global Telecommunication System (GTS) Link with Airport:  ACMAD having accessibility with an airport-level weather observation system observation for civil aviation. The GTS provides all airportlevel weather observation datasets. 

• Regional Advanced Retransmission System (RARS) Station Setup under SAWIDRA Project :

With support from satellite and Weather Information for Disaster Resilience in Africa (SAWIDRA), ACMAD runs with data assimilation of both polar-orbiting satellites to obtained data from several satellites for weather observation purposes.

• The interface of several multi-models e.g. ICON, ARPEGE, GFS, ECMWF, UKMO, MEAN etc., for weather parameters of  24 hours of precipitation, temperatures, relative humidity  and wind velocity etc.

6.4 Proposed Data Linkage with Tropical Storm warning center at La Réunion  : 

Meteo France installed Tropical Cyclones Centre at La Réunion is the WMO designated specialized center for watching weather depression over the western Indian Ocean and provide cyclone early warning for the eastern part of Africa. The data linkage with enabled ACMAD capacity in tropical storm warnings. 

6.5 Data Linkage with AUC, ICPAC, RECs, NHMS, Emergency management Focal Point: 

Technical support for the development of impact based multi-hazard early warnings at the precision level required recurrent coordination of disaster risk data and information data &  information exchange from topto-bottom level ( end users) and subsequently bottom-to-top level e.g. AUC, AUCs organs, Sub organs, policy & planning, and programmatic desks, member states, Regional Economic & Communities (RECs), National HydroMeteorological Service (NHMS) Organization, nodal agencies of disaster management, humanitarian actors, vulnerable communities for having information of multi-hazards & impacts. Coordination with national level operationalizes multi-hazard emergency operations center (EOC) for dissemination of early warnings information & services.  

Linkage with national level NHMS organizations for accessing the national level GIS datasets on multi-hazards for developing risk and vulnerabilities at the country level.  

ACMAD needs processed climatic risk information/data (vector, raster image, shapefile) inputs for GIS-based customization of and detailed spatial analysis of multi-hazard perspectives for the wide range of stakeholders to support risk-informed planning. 

6.6 Proposed Data Linkage with WMO designated center:

ACMAD having insufficient access to data and information exchange, coordination and active linkage with the WMO designated regional climate centers across the continent, and subsequently not having access to specialized customized tools for mechanizing holistic observation over every corner of the African continent and developing more qualitative informed continental watch at the end of the day.  Although WMO over the 20202023 strategic plan envisioned to establish improved access to the exchange of data, information, and services, standardization, application, research, and training for capacity building of stakeholders for innovative approaches of service deliveries, ACMAD still needs to harmonize this option. 

Linking ACAMD with the WMO  specialized multi-hazard Early warning hubs of the African continent over the accessing to fastest onset multi-hazards warnings e.g. proposed linkage to La Réunion – Tropical Cyclone Warning Center (TCWP), storm surge predictions at the storm vulnerable areas, linkage with Vacoas marine meteorological center, Dar-es-salam and Pretoria WIS center for severe weather forecasting. 

Figure 5: Proposed linkages among the WMO Regional Specialized Meteorological Centers 

Stronger coordination mechanism amongst the continent level WMO designated Regional Climate Centers required to foster the optimally uses meteorological resources, facilitate weather & climate datasets, information, and knowledge products. ACMAD can play a pivotal role in establishing stronger linkages with those hubs for developing precision level meteorological services viz weather warnings, forecasts, and outlooks.

7.0 Muti-hazard Continental Advisory Center interoperability   

The proposed Continental advisory center  encompasses components of an integrated ICT system along with existing met data capturing satellite stations, additional components envisaged as e.g. open-source a) myDEWETRA platform, b) EUMETCast Platform, c) GLOFAS (Global Flood Awareness System), etc. for supporting impact-based forecasting services before facilitating multi-hazard early warnings and developing risk-informed downscale tools for the diverse stakeholders.

Figure 6 : Proposed nowcasting tools at Continental advisory center 

7.1  The myDEWETRA 2.0 System Installation : 

myDEWETRA 2.0 is an open-source online platform for Earth System observation and prediction over meteorological observation, weather forecasting, earth observation, hydro-meteorological modeling, and geospatial multi-hazard risk/vulnerability analysis.    The platform allows registered users to access datasets and to integrated data, regardless of the provider. The application manages, in fact, both the data provided by the National System of Functional Centres and the territorial and geospatial ones published as WMS services by other platforms. The platform can load and display geo-referenced static and dynamic layers and allows the endusers to browse the values of each gauging station and other more advanced observational tools, offering interactive tools and features for the analysis of ongoing and past events.

Primarily myDEWETRA can be accessed by web at https://www.mydewetra.world   for further user-level customization ( running scripts ) for developing specific products and running with these open-source systems, but for this purposes, this platform can be installed at a Linux server at the ACMAD continental advisory center

.

The myDEWETRA 2.0 can be installed with a Linux CentOS server in the specialized situation at ACAMD premises for providing improved access to meteorological inputs, products, and services. UNDRR expert from ACMAD supported for installation of the platform. The installations support by ICT experts of  CIMA  Research Foundation & UNDRR experts.

7.2  Usability of myDEWETRA in  Climate and disaster risk management : 

myDEWETRA provides datasets of several formats (TIFF image format, GIS shape file) in raster formats which is very supportive for exporting the products from the platform and importing by the QGIS, ArcGIS software’s and detailed analyzing it with other essential geospatial layers for more comprehensive spatial analysis of risks and vulnerabilities of the multiple sectors.

Table4  : myDEWETRA data harmonization and product development :

[1] https://land.copernicus.eu/global/products/swi 

[1] Fiorucci et al., 2005; 2007; 2008; 2011

7.3   Usability of  myDEWETRA in ACMAD’s Multi-hazard Forecasting, Risk & Vulnerability Analysis  : 

The  myDEWETRA open-source platform having synchronized whether satellite-based tools for serving multiple purposes of weather observation, hydro-meteorological forecasts( short-medium range), multi-hazard mapping( flood, landslide, fire, cyclone, localized storms) those useful tools are essential to be enabled ACMAD in developing demand drive risk-informed tools development for 54 African Countries. This open-ended platform supporting ACMAD in developing evidence-based weather, climate, water, and related environmental information is essential for providing sector-specific risk information as informed tools for sectoral development planning and programme/project implementation.

The system is expected to enhance ACMAD’s technical capacity in strategizing country-level climate risks and vulnerability assessment tools development, Pre-disaster preparedness planning, post-disaster emergency response, and recovery planning and will be able to support counties in establishing a new paradigm of informed tools based disaster risk management strategies. Open source myDEWETRA 2.0 platform facilitates ACMAD in developing impact-based multi-hazard early warning s with showcasing the hazard hotspot over the continent map.

7.4   Multi-hazard early warning product  development process : 

The approaches  are to synchronize the existing interfaces at the satiation room so that forecasters can have simultaneous observation with all available nowcasting services

Figure 7: Multi-hazard Early Warnings development and multi-hazard risk-informed advisory  development process

1. Step 1: Data acquisition (Weather parameter observations): Forecasters are expected to have access to and view the myDEWETRA , GloFAS, and other existing nowcasting interfaces under the observation process. For Rapidly Developing weather events, review the RDT interface and interpret the consequences and provide the forecast. 

• Step 2: Analysis of the synoptic features: Along with the satellite-based nowcasting, forecasters need to concurrently analyze the synoptic charts of ground stations for current and past weather and examine the previous situation and also anticipate future evolution e.g. convective system is decaying and increasing which needs to consider for the forecasting. Forecasters regularly use PUMA stations for the analysis, now myDEWETRA platform will provided added value for GIS based analysis with other attribute features. 

• Step 3: Analysis of all atmospheric Parameters: Forecasters need to the analysis of critical synoptic drivers e.g. ITD  ( Inter-Tropical Discontinuity ), analyze the movement of monsoon flux, in case of the West African Monsoon period, the moist air coming from the south and dry air coming for the north, deep convection occurs south of the ITD, wind velocity and direction, CAPE( Convective available potential energy) of the atmosphere, tracking information about the convention, convergence or divergence, Analysis Relative Humidity, ( Wet-bulb potential temperature) and other essential parameters.  

• Step 4: Prepare the time-series forecast map: After analyzing all parameters of the region-specific diverse weather system, the forecaster’s job is to prepare a different range of forecasting products and bulletins of the continent.  

• Step 5: Prepare the multi-hazard map on extreme weather events  with GIS tools  :  

This step, basically to be handled by the disaster risk management professional for interpretation of weather outlook products and extreme events with GIS software by overlaying multiple variables(geospatial layers) for comprehensive multi-hazard exposure, risk and vulnerabilities, developing special-purpose customized maps for disaster risk management, emergency preparedness, response and rehabilitation mapping for the vulnerable sectors, vulnerable communities and risk management stakeholders on the national and local level.

7.5   Types of Products is intended to produce: 

1. Short-range  forecasting ( Rainfall observation of  Nowcasting, Daily, Weekly): Short-range Forecasts (12 hours to a few days) e.g.  Heavy rainfall, strong winds, Floods, Flash floods,  Tropical Cyclones, 
2. Medium-range Forecasts (a few days to two weeks) –Floods, flash floods, strong winds, tropical Cyclones,
3. Extended-range Forecasts (two weeks and beyond) – Multi-hazards forecast and risks map on maps on heavy

Rainfall, Strong winds, high temperatures, localized thunderstorm, droughts, and other  Severe Weather bulletins

• Extended-range Forecasts (two weeks and beyond) – Multi-hazards forecast and risks map on maps on heavy

Rainfall, Strong winds, high temperatures, localized thunderstorm, droughts, and other  Severe Weather bulletins

• Extended-range Forecasts (two weeks and beyond) – Droughts and Severe Weather Monthly and Seasonal

Forecasts – Droughts 

• Monthly and Seasonal Forecasts –Monthly and seasonal forecasts continue to improve, developed Multi-hazards maps occurred, a monthly bulletin on heavy Rainfall, Strong winds, high temperatures, localized thunderstorms, droughts, and other  Severe Weather bulletins, Monthly Climate Diagnostic bulletin for Africa (RCC).
• Long-range forecasting: Seasonal precipitation forecast, weather(parameter) anomalies, Seasonal temperature forecast map, African seasonal precipitation average map,   Seasonal climate forecast bulletin (RCC), seasonal rainfall, and another parameter variability, customized multi-hazards forecast map for development sectors and other customized map. 
• Numerical Weather Prediction (NWP) model outputs (D1, D2, and D3 rain accumulation forecast), ITD positions (D1 up to D3), and other relevant outlooks. 
• Monthly and seasonal forecasts continue to improve by using myDEWETRA platform. 
• Rapidly Developing Thunderstorm  (RDT) and rapid on-set weather events. 

8.0 The standard operating procedure (SOP) of MHEWS Center

The standard operating procedure (SOP) of Africa Multi-Hazard Early Warning and Action System for DRR Continental Continental advisory center  is designed for the African Center of Meteorological Applications for Development (ACMAD) and simultaneously being linked and interacting with other prioritized centers e.g. African Union Commission (AUC), and ICPAC. This SOP being well articulated with a set of the guideline of technical and functional aspects of how myDEWETRA & EUMETCast tools shall be facilitating in real-time and time-span hydro-meteorological data to be integrated into the system, data collecting, processing, real-time risk analysis and supporting multi-hazard risk-informed tools to AUC, its organs and Member States(MS), and Disaster Risk Management Authorities at the continent level with the given priority of risk-informed preparedness plans, and, response, and postdisaster recovery and reconstruction mechanisms. 

The Standard Operating Procedures (SOP) of ACMAD Continental advisory center  is a toolkit that is expected to provide integrated and strategic guidance to Continental advisory center  Officers (forecasters), Weather department of ACMAD, AUC, and IPAC continental advisory center s, and other operators of the regions to operating robustly.

This SOP provides the strategies for the effective data capture, data process, time-spanning forecasting products, early warnings, and relevant climate information and services to stakeholders engaged in disaster and climate emergencies e.g. , DRM focal points,  humanitarian actors, NHMS organizations, vulnerable service sectors at the country and national level of the Africa Continent. 

SOP being intended to give the leverage of data exchange mechanism, data communication, coordination, in-house knowledge collaboration, and tools sharing among the AUC, ACMAD, ICPAC, and other connected agencies.  

Apart from the business as usual of weather-watching, the CIMA foundation intended to upgrading the ACMAD watch center to provide multi-hazard early warnings ( MHEWS) by deploying the myDEWETRA platform. The mechanism being envisaged to establish MHEWS and to set up a 24/7 continental advisory center  at ACMAD center with the installation of open-source platform myDEWETRA. This platform is developed by CIMA Research Foundation and owned by the Department of Civil Protection. Technically, the platform encompasses multiple weather satellitebased integrated remotely sensed hydro-meteorological data capture, data processing and providing observations of weather parameters, multi-hazards forecasting, and model analysis. 

More importantly, the establishment of myDEWETRA based  MHEWS at the ACMAD Continental advisory center  and standardized operation of the platform will improve climate and weather information services to the relevant stakeholders for the climate-resilient sustainable development of the Sahel region and the beyond.

8.1 Standard Operating Procedures ( SOP) of Muti-hazard Continental Advisory Center

The main hazards affecting the African continent are related to extreme weather events. These include heavy rainfall, strong winds, floods, rainfall-triggered landslides, tropical cyclones, drought. The continent is affected by other hazards such as earthquakes, volcanoes, tsunamis, extreme heat, etc.  The Continental Watch report will offer a general overview of all the potential natural threats, assessing with a predefined color coding (green, yellow, orange, and red) related to their possible severity. 

These Standard Operating Procedures are divided into two parts. The first one is for developing and disseminating CWs and the second is about developing and disseminating SitReps by ACMAD and ICPAC. Pertinent to performing the technical early warning operations and tools, the continental advisory center  shall be issuing two kinds of reports, according to the fixed schedule agreed. The first report is the Continental bulletin (hereinafter, CW) twice a week. This bulletin shall reflect a scan, observe and forecast of the weather and climate system of the whole continent that could potentially lead to any disaster and providing advisories for DRM. Other early warning institutions will be consulted as the situation dictates to provide information for the continental watch reports.

The second part of the process of continental advisory center  to supplement AUC an event Situation Report (abbreviated as SitRep) highlighting the standing conditions of an on-set of just the disasters triggered by extreme weather events, over the ongoing or potentially be impending hazard events, (e.g., an approaching Tropical Cyclone), the incrementally to intensifying of flooding situation or fresh flooding to down streams territories, etc. SitRep should be prepared immediately after the disaster event (or in advance in case of any hydro-meteorological events, e.g. Tropical Cyclones) or preemptive to trigger a hazard event to disaster.  

The African Union commission continental advisory center  will be responsible for the collection of information, analysis of the information, and dissemination of the reports to all stakeholders or the general public when deemed to do so.

It is however highly mentionable that the stakeholders are now demanding a detailed landscape of spatially analyzed best risks informed (the climate riks and vulnerability GIS-based spatial analytical maps) tools for supporting policy, program, project planning, and decision making desks for evidencebased development project planning, design, implementation, monitoring and largely to achieve the SDG goals. 

The primary objective of the MHEWS is to enhance the capacity of ACMAD  to produce spatial maps/tools and to timely supplement to AUC, its sub-organ, regions, and county focal points to take early actions for impending disasters.

The goal of the SOP  of the ACMAD warning center is to leverage the development of the strategic tool and upgrading ACMAD led time-series weather observation, forecasting, rapidly developing thunderstorm (RDT), and real-time based other multi-hazard early warning products in more upgraded ways by defining the approach. 

Improving Nowcast: By using the multiple sources of satellite-based real-time weather observations, consequence analysis with leveraging additional analytical tooms e.g. myDEWETRA platform,  Global Flood Awareness System (GloFAS), and access to EUMETSat Cast at the  Continental advisory center  of ACMAD.

Improving Forecasts:  At the outset of installed MHEWS and upgraded continental advisory center  at ACMAD center being enhanced the capacity of ACMAD in producing different range real-time and different range of forecasts (RDT, Short-range, medium-range, long-range, decadal, monthly, and seasonal)  and outlooks at the precision level. Accuracy of different range forecasts is being highly demanded by the AUC, its organs/sub-organs, NHMS organizations, DRM actors at the national and local level. 

Impact-based Forecasts:  A customized forecasting system to be scaled-up by the deployment of the myDEWETRA platform,  Global Flood Awareness System (GloFAS), and access to EUMETSat Cast at the  Continental advisory center  of ACMAD.  

Multi-Hazard Early Warnings: As the weather and climatic phenomena being rapidly changing of climatic system and perturbations over the early and African continent particularly, the need for MHEWS are mounting. The SOP is intended to set out the procedures of  MHEWS at the ACMAD with the existing system in place. 

Coordination,  Communications, and Advocacy:  Objectives to establish communication strategies with AUC and beyond for strengthening ties with stakeholders for knowledge, information sharing,  sharing the effectiveness and efficacy of climate information products and services for matching the needs of  NHMS organizations. Sharing the best practices, actively engage with focal points/nodal agencies, local governments,  sector departments, local actors, media outlets, and build the value proposition being offered by the continental advisory center . 

8.2 Defined Roles under Standard Operating Procedures ( SOP) 

Forecasters:  ACMAD continental advisory center s being equipped to facilitate forecasters with for observation (space satellite-based observation and terrestrial synoptic stations based)  and acquisition of atmospheric weather parameters from different interfaces e.g. myDEWETRA, PUMA, GLOFAS, GTS links. Forecasters’ jobs as forefront watchdog to weathers parameters and analyzing.  Forecasters regular activities to monitor atmospheric conditions every hour and provide nowcasting. 

Synoptic Analysis Team: Verify the fundamentals of weather analysis and forecasting, interpretation of surface observations( with WMO synoptic stations), satellite-based observations, verifying the multi-modal forecasts simultaneously, running forecast ensemble process, forecast diagnosis, forecast verification and finalize the forecast.

Data Analysis Team: Find the available climate datasets from the DCPC, WIS, fetch data, and readily made them available to develop multipurpose climate modeling.  

Climate Team: Analysing of short-range forecast( 3 Days, 4 days ), analysis of meteorological data from other regional WMO centers (DCPCs,  WIS), Center for climate prediction center ( CPC), EUMETSAT stations, etc and provide a different range of products  Medium-range Forecasts (decadal to two weeks) – Tropical Cyclones, Floods, etc. Extended-range Forecasts (two weeks and beyond) – Droughts and Severe Weather etc. Extendedrange Forecasts (two weeks and beyond) – Droughts and Severe Weather. Monthly and Seasonal Forecasts – Droughts, weather anomalies, agricultural droughts, seasonal variation of climates. Analysis of climatic variables and prepare detailed forecast maps on monthly, seasonal and yearly, and beyond.  

Multi-hazard risk analysis and Mapping Team: Using hazard forecasting bulleting, multi-hazard mapping expert responsibilities to analyze the sector-specific multi-hazards exposure, risks, and vulnerabilities and produce customized early warning maps for the sectors.  

Climate Model Team: Responsibilities torun the model and develop forecast, long-range forecast bulleting, specialized sector-specific customized bulletins, weather outlook, monthly, yearly outlook, and multi-hazard maps.

8.3 Weather Observation Process :

7 Days Forecasts: WAVEWATCH III (WW3) Model: Using the  THREDDS NetCDF Subset Service is an excellent tool for giving a forecast for consecutive 7 days. 

Figure 8 : Green Bubble showing the normal thresholds precipitation projections  

7 Days warning : 

 

Figure 9 : 7 Days warning

http://154.66.220.45:8080/thredds/catalog/WW3/7day/catalog.html  

Source: Catalog http://154.66.220.45:8080/thredds/catalog/WW3/1day/warning/catalog.html  

8.4 Forecast & Bulleting Development Process ::

Figure10: Forecast & Bulleting Development Process 

8.5   Forecasting  Process :

Step 1: Analysis of past weather : a) Analysis with Satellite images :

PUMA nowcast

• The purpose is it review the forecasting accuracy by reviewing the last forecasted time lead(days) of satellite captured images from the sky. Review the weather system being prevailed those days and examine all parameters previous days and identify the point of forecasting gaps. 
• Analysis of past convective system of decaying and increasing that need to consider for the next level of the forecast. Forecasters regularly use real-time nowcasting for this analysis.  
• Analysis of forecast and statistical forecast data 

Analysis of the corresponding Synoptic chart: Rerecorded by the ground-based WMO-designated synoptic ground observation weather stations across the continents ( around 1000 met stations in Africa according to WMO).

Step 2: Analysis of ITD (Inter-Tropical Discontinuity) :

a) Analysis of the limit between dry air ( harmattan^[1] ) and moist air( monsoon), wind flow, deep convention, mean sea level pressure, etc. The diurnal cycle of ITD^[2], i.e. the interface at the ground between moist monsoon air and dry Harmattan air, is an important factor in the West

African monsoon system. During the whole of 2006, high-resolution ground-based remotesensing measurements were performed in the area of Djougou, Benin, which made it possible to observe the ITD and the associated sharp gradient of temperature and humidity in detail.

[1] https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Harmattan  

[2] Article  in  Quarterly Journal of the Royal Meteorological Society · January 2010 

Analysis of the movement of monsoon flux, the moist air coming from the south and dry air coming from the north. Deep convection occurs south of the ITD. 

Step 3: Analysis of the synoptic drivers :

1. Analysis of Winds ( at 925 hPa^[1] to analyze the monsoon flux ) velocity and direction
2. Analysis of  heat low ( area of low pressure which is the center of action of meteorology )
3. Analyzing 850 hPa to observe wind vorticity 
4. 700 hPa to observe African easterly waves (AEWs) and wind direction
5. Analyzing 600 hPa wind direction, AEWs, and African easterly jet (AEJ) which is very important for the convection 
6. Geopotential 500 hPa and temperature at 850 hPa
7. Analysis 200 hPa to observe Tropical Easterly Jet (JET) and STJ ( Sub Tropical Jet)   

Step 4: Analysis of deep convection parameters 

[1] The unit for pressure is hectopascals (hPa) 

Step 5: Analysis Deep Convection over Africa through areas common values of followings;

a) Convergence (at low level) , Convergence( at medium level ) , Divergence( high level )   structures to updraft airmass

1. Good value CAPE  
2. Very good value of Vertical velocity
3. High values of relative humidity through all the troposphere 
4. Taking in account of synoptic drivers 

The unit for pressure is hectopascals (hPa) 

Area with high vertical velocity

Low & mid-level convergence or divergence ( airmass)

Convective Available Potential Energy (CAPE)^[1]  CAPE stands for convective available potential energy, and it is a useful tool for determining the severe weather potential at a given location at a given time. Using CAPE to Forecast Severe Weather.

[1] https://study.com/academy/lesson/convective–available–potential–energy–cape–definition–use–inforecasting.html  

Step 6: Prepare Forecast map and Bulletin :

Determine areas where deep convection is supposed to occur with the type of rainfall and its intensity and showing strong winds and giving warnings of weather based on heavy rainfall and strong winds. Forecasting of convection

Step 7: Forecast verification 

Satellite images to indicate where deep convection occurs and synoptic data give an indication of registered rainfall at the synoptic (WMO) station across the African continent ( around 1000 stations).

8.6   SOP on developing Alert Level 

Most countries choose to customize their alert levels. A simple yellow, orange, red system is used by the Irish Meteorological Service (Irish Early Warning System). Simple, easy to understand, actionable.

Yellow – Weather Alert – Take preventative action. It is implicit that Yellow level weather alerts are for weather conditions that do not pose an immediate threat to the general population, but only to those exposed to risk by nature of their location and/or activity.

Orange – Weather Warning – Be Prepared for the category of ORANGE level weather warnings is for weather conditions that can impact significantly on people in the affected areas. The issue of an Orange level weather warning implies that all recipients in the affected areas should prepare themselves in an appropriate way for the anticipated conditions.

Red – Severe Weather Warning – Take Action The issue of RED level severe weather warnings should be a comparatively rare event and implies that recipients take action to protect themselves and/or their properties; this could be by moving their families out of the danger zone temporarily; by staying indoors; or by other specific actions aimed at mitigating the effects of the weather conditions. This level of warning assumes high confidence in the event occurring. Any false warnings could lead to unnecessary panic and loss of credibility. 

8.7   Showcases myDEWETRA platform

8.9  myDEWETRA data harmonization for risk-informed tools development process

Table 6 : myDEWETRA data harmonization and product development :

[1] https://land.copernicus.eu/global/products/swi 

[1] Fiorucci et al., 2005; 2007; 2008; 2011

8.10  An Integrated  Approach on Multi-hazard Early Warnings and Products Development process

The approach is to synchronizing the existing interfaces at the satiation room so that forecasters can have simultaneous observation with all available nowcasting services. 

Figure 11: Multi-hazard Early Warnings development and multi-hazard risk-informed advisory  development process

8.11 Steps of Product development process

• Step 1: Data acquisition (Weather parameter observations): Forecasters expected to have access to and view the myDEWETRA , Glofas and other existing nowcasting interface under the observation process. For Rapidly Developing weather events, review the RDT interface and interpret the consequences and provide the forecast. 

• Step 2: Analysis of the synoptic features: Along with the satellite based nowcasting, forecasters need to concurrently  analyse the synoptic chats of ground stations for current and  past weather and examine the previous situation and also anticipate about future evolution e.g. convective system is decaying and increasing which needs to considered for the forecasting. Forecasters regularly use PUMA station for the analysis, now myDEWETRA platform will provided added value for GIS based analysis with other attribute features. 

• Step 3: Analysis of all atmospheric features: Forecasters need to analysis of critical synoptic drivers

e.g. ITD  ( Inter Tropical Discontinuity ), analysis the movement of monsoon flux , the moist air coming from south and dry air coming for the north, deep convection occurs south of the ITD, wind velocity and direction, CAPE( Convective available potential energy) of the atmosphere, tracking  information about convention, convergence or divergence, Analysis Relative Humidity, ( Wet-bulb potential temperature) and other essential parameters.  

Step 4: Prepare the time-series forecast map : After analyzing all parameters of the region specific diverse weather system, the forecasters job to prepare different range of forecasting products and bulletin of the continent.  

• Step 5: Prepare the multi-hazard map on extreme weather events  with GIS tools  :  

This  step, basically to be handled by the disaster risk management professional for  interpretation of weather outlook products and extreme events with GIS software by overlaying multiple variables(geospatial layers) for comprehensive   multi-hazard exposure , risk and vulnerabilities, developing special purpose customized maps for disaster risk management , emergency preparedness, response and rehabilitation mapping for the vulnerable sectors, vulnerable communities and risk management stakeholders on the national  and local level.

8.12 Types of Products and Services being intended

• Short range  forecasting ( Rainfall observation of  Nowcasting, Daily, Weekly) : Short-range Forecasts

(12 hours to a few days) e.g.  Heavy rainfall, strong winds, Floods, Flash floods,  Tropical Cyclones, 

• Medium-range Forecasts (a few days to two weeks) –Floods, flash floods, strong winds, tropical

Cyclones,

• Extended-range Forecasts (two weeks and beyond) – Multi-hazards forecast and risks map on maps on heavy Rainfall, Strong winds, high temperatures, localized thunder storm, droughts and other  Severe

Weather bulletins

• Extended-range Forecasts (two weeks and beyond) – Multi-hazards forecast and risks map on maps on heavy Rainfall, Strong winds, high temperatures, localized thunder storm, droughts and other  Severe

Weather bulletins

• Extended-range Forecasts (two weeks and beyond) – Droughts and Severe Weather Monthly and

Seasonal Forecasts – Droughts 

• Monthly and Seasonal Forecasts –Monthly and seasonal forecasts continue to improve, developed Multi-hazards maps occurred, monthly bulletin on  heavy Rainfall, Strong winds, high temperatures, localized thunder storm, droughts and other  Severe Weather bulletins, Monthly Climate Diagnostic bulletin for Africa (RCC).
• Long range forecasting: Seasonal precipitation forecast, weather(parameter) anomalies, Seasonal temperature forecast map, African seasonal precipitation average map,   Seasonal climate forecast bulletin (RCC), seasonal rainfall and other parameter variability, customized multi-hazards forecast map for development sectors and other customized map. 
• Numerical Weather Prediction (NWP) model outputs (D1,D2 and D3 rain accumulation forecast), ITD positions (D1 up D3), and other relevant outlooks. 
• Monthly and seasonal forecasts continue to improve by using myDEWETRA platfrom. 
• Rapidly Developing Thunderstorm  (RDT) and rapid on-set weather events. 

8.13 Seven (7) Days Rainfall Warning & Forecasting ( 1 Day, 2 Days,3 Days,4 Days,5 Days,6 Days,7 Days)

1. Forecasting: Warning in every 15 minutes with WaveWatch III ( WW3 ) WaveWatch III (WW3) Global Wave Model. 

Numerical forecast of weather and wind waves, using WRF and WW3, on the Cuban territory and surrounding waters, and comparison with MM5+WW3. 

The   THREDDS NetCDF Subset Service is an excellent tool for giving warning of 1-day rainfall project map early of the day which is 

http://154.66.220.45:8080/thredds/catalog/WW3/7day/catalog.html  

Source : KMZ file  ( http://154.66.220.45:8080/thredds/catalog/WW3/7day/catalog.html )  extracted from Thredds server, imported file in ArcGIS software and prepared this map 

Warning: Rapidly Developing Thunderstorm (RDT) 

Source RDT : http://154.66.220.45:8080/thredds/fileServer/RDT/20210930/index.html

Forecast Verification :

http://154.66.220.45:8080/thredds/fileServer/ACMAD/WWFD/v erificationservice/OBS/RR24.html 

http://154.66.220.45:8080/thredds/fileServer/ACMAD/WWFD /forecastinservice/Africa/20210930/africa_multimodel_display

_2021093000.html 

9.0 Coordination Mechanism for Data Exchange

The core component of improving disaster risk management governances is inextricably linked to the outflow of the exclusive level of climate extreme and disaster risk information exchange and coordination at multiple levels by establishing a robust coordination mechanism. Given that African context of climate extreme and impending multi-hazards are being interacted with rapid on-set disaster events over the diverse landscape and doing the colossal level of damage to life, livelihoods and eventually to jeopardize the food security with quite a larger extent. The extreme climatic phenomena continue to exacerbating as IPCC project that Africa already exceeded 2°C by the last two decades of this century and over the end of the century Africa will be falling in between 3°C and 6°C^[1] and it is very likely that the land temperatures over Africa will rise faster than the global land average, particularly in the more arid regions, and that the rate of even increase in minimum temperatures will exceed that of maximum average temperatures today. The nature of incremental pace of changing climates and subsequently intensity of multi-hazard events is more often being characterized as catastrophes over the past decades. Given that circumstances, the comprehensive management of disaster events required a holistic level of participation in risk screening, information exchange & repository, management & process, development of informed tools to instrumentalizing risk integrated planning from central to the local level.

The frameworks approach over to inclusive emergency information service deliveries with coherent horizontal and vertical coordination mechanisms of the information exchange among national governments, focal points, institutional, stakeholders, users’ level for dealing with disaster emergencies and target to achieve SDG 2030 and beyond. 

However, activating an integrated multi-hazard early warnings system and delegating the most timecritical and accurate level of forecast and prediction of extreme weather is a more critical job, which required multi-faceted functionaries and coordinated mechanisms for effective and interactive service deliveries. 

9.1 Purpose of the Multi-hazard Early Warning Data Coordination Mechanism   

The most important ingredients for developing impact-based early warnings are encompassing comprehensive observation and analysis of extreme weather parameters, another rapidly developing weather system (e.g. RDT), etc., which are very essential for developing extreme weather forecasts. To develop impact based multi-hazard Everly warning tool, the given forecast needs to be further analyzing with spatial analytical tools (GIS software).  Principally, the more precision level early Warnings, the more appropriate level of early actions (EWEA).  Impact-based forecasting can effectively be informed organizations and communities to formulate understandable and actionable messages and take respective preparedness and response measures.

Considering the inflow and outflow of datasets & information, the African Union Commission ( AUC) undertaken initiatives aligning the Sendai Framework & Global Framework for Climate Services  (GFCS) approach based paradigm of developing MHEWS, dissemination, and integrating with the risk informed decision-making process at the local level. 

[1] IPCC 

The main goal of MHEWS is to leverage the best practices, innovative methodologies, and existing tools to share actionable early warnings and build sustainability for climate information and early warning systems initiatives. The African Union Commission (AUC) needs to solicit disaster risk data from member states. 

This coordination mechanism is expected to be providing the way forward for the collection and management, usage of the data and products and the rights of the data providers specify the roles and the contacts of the responsible data holders and providers. These mechanisms will be able to set synergies for data exchange coordination amongst the core stakeholders e.g. Africa Union Commission (AUC), Regional Economic Communities (RECs), and Member States (MS), and other relevant stakeholders.

9.2 Objectives of the Data Coordination & Exchange Mechanism   

The objectives of this exclusive coordination and exchange mechanism are to strengthen the AUC’s pivotal roles in establish and improve the coordination mechanism of plugging in all inputs of on-going multi-hazard dissemination of severe weather forecasts, facilitate interactive and effective communication, coordination for exchange of disaster emergency data and information on on-set disaster events at the local level, and subsequently preparing an event situation report on the occasion of disaster being declared by the Member states. 

Improving the disaster risk management governance at multiple levels following through the topdown & bottom-up approach with the following technical objectives :

a) Delegating programme, strategies to  RECs, MS , Focal points, NHMS organizations  (Disaster Management, Met Agency, vulnerable sector departments,  hydrological organizations, local governments ) on conducting multi-hazards risk & vulnerabilities analysis, the repository of multi-hazard risk database & corresponding GIS Map at the all administrative level. 

AUC to delegate and propagate strategy, process, and activities to conduct comprehensive risk and vulnerability assessment at national, regional/provincial/district, and lowest administrative level before developing risk repository and informed tools which essentially required for having risk scenario/phenomena, GIS multi-hazard risk & vulnerability distribution map readily available in hand. This mandatory tool would effectively be complementing the most precise level of projection of forecasting extreme weathers complying with the background check of the prevailing risk context of the vulnerable countries.

b) Delegating the job to the Continental advisory center  (ACMAD & ICPAC) for developing severe weather forecasts, and multi-hazard situation reporting:

As a regular interval, the AUC to delegate responsibilities to two regional WMO designated Regional Climate Centers (ACMAD & ICPAC) for developing two products “Continental Watch” on severe weather forecasting on the ahead of 5 days and giving the threshold of 5 days amount of precipitation accumulation with the projection of rainfall color coded level of warnings and advisories on probable consequences and also the advisories of strong winds. 

c) Implying policy advocacy on multi-hazard risk screening, assessment to disaster damage and needs, data capture, information coordination   

• Implying policy advocacy to Member States(MS), RECs, National hydro-meteorological service providers(NHMS), and beyond to remain operational in risk screening, data & information capture, and coordinating the datasets, and information to AUC continental advisory center . 
• Putting a participatory open-ended policy in place and delegating member states of taking stock of all information of disaster incidence, disaster damage and loss profile(picture, videos), assessment report,  documentaries, humanitarian response, response gaps, postdisaster impacts on sectors, economies, livelihoods,  public health and building back better approach. 
• Putting policy regulation to MS to establish coherent coordination mechanism under standing orders on disaster (SoD)  for exclusive engagement of  DRM stakeholders &  actors, the private sector, NGOs, social services organizations,  and the civil society, etc., as partners for incorporating inputs(feedback) to MHEWS  as a way to ensure risk informed and sustainable development .

• Improving Africa Media Monitor (AMM) Structures, Procedures, and Service automation process

1. Underpinning the most prioritized action of upgrading AMM web portals so that it can crawl and grab relevant disaster event information from all new outlets and develop a repository for easy access.
2. Specialized Web portal development for exclusively disseminating and interacting disaster event information. Taking into account the centralized role as AUCs as a continental body, this organization undertakes advocacies of disseminating severe weather forecasting tool “continental watch” at sub-organs, regions, and member states level and beyond level. 3) Developing a disaster event database on past disasters  4) Develop a digital library of disaster event information. 

• Developing interactive forum over the social networks  

1. Utilize the social networking platform for inclusive interactive participation of audiences. 
2. Taking feedbacks from stakeholders, focal points, vulnerable communities for further customization and improvement of products and services for meeting the demand.
3. The development, access, and use of the best science and new technologies underpin all components of multi-hazard early warning systems.
4. Feedbacks that learning from good practices of understanding & receiving early warnings by the vulnerable community from the remote & hard-to-reach areas. 
5. Strengthening the Early Warning for Early Action (EWEA) chain, taking on an impact-based forecasting approach in early warning to enable organizations and communities to formulate understandable and actionable messages and take respective preparedness and response measures.
6. Upgrading web portal of Africa Media Monitor for customization to capture disaster event information at the up-to-date level.

9.3       Proposed Structures of Coordination Mechanism for Data Exchange 

Following through a participatory, inclusive, and open-ended platform which is expected to leverage both ways effective communication and the robust coordination mechanism. The target goal of AUC led process is to develop extreme weather risk-informed tools CW and event situation report for delivering multi-hazard risk early warnings effectively. Partnership development among the continental and regional level (RECs & beyond) must appropriate operational institutional bodes to generate, exchange and disseminate information. The principles of the MHEWS mechanism are to routinely collate, store and process information about past, present, and future extreme weather events. The typical architecture of coordination mechanism to simultaneously function both way traffic of information dissemination and exchange.   Primarily myDEWETRA can be accessed by web at https://www.mydewetra.world   for  downloading and customization multi-hazard risk, analyzing weather parameters for developing specific products, and running with this open-source systems through https://test.mydewetra.world .

The implementation strategy of mechanism encompasses a multi-tiered structure that of AUC delegated  and collaborative process to ensure continental and regional level coordination and data exchange facilitating the CW and event situation reports are generated, exchanged, and disseminated: 

1. Continental level through a range of advanced continental bodies; 
2. Regional level through RECs;
3. Member states level through the national network of entities with national and local level ;  

Figure  12: Typical Structures of Coordination of  Data Exchange Mechanism

9.4   Actionable coordination Mechanism for Data Exchange 

9.5   Roles of AUC for the coordination 

AUC with its centralized roles to delegate responsibilities to two continental advisory center s (Regional RCC)  e.g. ACMAD & ICPAC for developing two products “Continental Watch” on the severe weather forecast on the ahead of 5 days giving warnings based on the threshold of 5 days amount of precipitation accumulation with a projection of rainfall severity of the color-coded level of warnings and advisories on probable consequences. 

Based on impact-based early warnings, AUC needs to invoke the process of event situation reporting to be formulated by ICPAC & ACMAD on the occasions of impending disaster, disaster events just occurred, and ongoing at the ground. 

9.6  Roles of RECs Level coordination

In the light of the 1980 Lagos Plan of Action for the Development of Africa, the Abuja Treaty^[1] proposed action for the creation of RECs as the basis for wider African integration, with a view to regional and eventual continental integration. The RECs are increasingly involved in coordinating AU Member States’ interests in wider areas such as peace and security, development and good governance, and promoting climate risk governance to the member countries.^[2]

AUC having 8 Regional Economic Communities (RECs) at the regional level. RECs can play important role in delegating disaster risk information repository and exchange with the respective member states (MS) and continental advisory center s at the country level.

The AU recognizes eight RECs :

1. Arab Maghreb Union (UMA)
2. Common Market for Eastern and Southern Africa (COMESA)
3. Community of Sahel–Saharan States (CEN–SAD)
4. East African Community (EAC)
5. Economic Community of Central African States (ECCAS)
6. Economic Community of West African States (ECOWAS) 7) Intergovernmental Authority on Development (IGAD)2 8) Southern African Development Community (SADC).

9.7   Roles  of ACMAD level

ACMAD’s primary role is to provide continental watch ( weather forecasting) from its newly installed continental continental advisory center  to AUC. ACMAD as a continental body can incentivize the multiple meteorological products and services for tailoring to support policy and planning desk for the risk-informed development planning process for the continental actors. UNDRR established continental advisory center  for developing customized weather information and services data sources to make publicly available to interoperable formats

[1] https://pmg.org.za/committee–meeting/67/   

[2] https://au.int/en/organs/recs 

ACMAD can further play an important role to encourage the member countries to incentivized the spatial risk information by the regional, national, and local authorities with higher-level or data. desegregation for sectoral risk analysis and developing the coherent institutional linkage and within the guideline of Sendai Framework. 

For institutional strengthening process;

• ACMAD coordination mechanism with other WMO designated RSMC/RCC for data sharing. 
• Establish coordination mechanisms for data exchange with Data Collection or Production Centre (DCPC) e.g. Casablanca
• Coordination with WMO Information System (WIS) for developing and sharing global catalog services on weather information service, data exchange, management, and processing. 
• Establish coordination EUMETCast for improving access to nowcasting services.
• Establish coordination with Regional Climate Outlook Forums (RCOFs) to produce consensusbased, user-relevant climate outlook products in real-time to reduce climate-related risks and support sustainable development.

9.8  Roles of ICPAC level

ICPAC already a WMO designated regional climate center and provides customized climate services to  AUC and 11 East African Countries and regions deeply affected by climate change and extreme weather. 

9.9 Roles of Member States 

Given that RECs policy and programming nexus with MS, the all countries remains to be as most vital   forefront executing entity in undertaking policy, strategy, programming, project development , risk informed local development planning, sector preparations in risk screening, assessment,  and   to invoke country-level state and non-state actors to remain operational and collect, collate and provide information on preparedness planning/contingencies of impending disasters and systematically conduct  post disasters damage, need the information to MHEWS. MS to recurrently maintain contacts with national focal points, humanitarian actors, and focal points for getting regular updates and concurrently to update to RECs and AUC.  

9.10  Proposed coordination mechanism with WMO designated RSMC/RCC : 

ACMAD is being performed as the central continental body for coordinating the WMO level extreme weather information, effectively integrate scientific and technical inputs, and producing CW at regular intervals. Every RSMC/RCC/WIS/DCPC in Africa having particular focuses over their region. As per WMO guidelines, ACMAD remains to be communicated with those centers for getting regional outlooks and weather updates. 

Figure 13: Proposed linkages among the WMO Regional Specialized Meteorological Centers 

9.10 Recommendations  on Coordination mechanism of data exchange

• Develop a highly professional-looking and most integrative web portal complementing the  MHEWS dissemination ( www.mhews.auc.int or www.mhews.int ) which to be administered, content being regularly updated by AUC Continental advisory center /EOC  at AUC.
• Disseminate most understandable, accurate, and timely CW & event situation report to designated authority and keeping it simple.
• Making messages and tools easily understandable to stakeholders and letting users provide feedback with social media.
• Continental advisory center s at AUC, ACMAD, ICPAC continue to support other Continental advisory center /EOC at  RECs & Member State level 
• AUC AMM to use interactive social media tools (Social media, e.g. Facebook, Twitter, WhatsApp, telegram, etc.) for a big data repository ( picture, videos, description of damage). By analyzing that information, provide an accurate set of information of ongoing disaster events for reporting and next-level response planning. 
• Activating and effective communication among the AUC, ACMAD, ICPAC, RECs, Member states by using email, social media communication tools, and keeping constant contact.
• Create an understandable extreme weather severity level with color-coded threshold and types of alerts, e.g. Red, Orange, Yellow for a wide range of users. 
• AUC ,  ACMAD, ICPAC , RECs, MS, and other relevant stakeholders to remain Integrated with other alerting systems (i.e. earthquake, volcano, dust storm, drought, forest/bush fire, and health alerts) for complementing MHEWS.

9.11 ACMAD Products and Services for DRM   

ACMAD continental watch, weather forecast products and services provides early warning services and  facilitating humanitarian response. The improved forecasts producing different range real-time and different range of forecasts (RDT, Short-range, medium-range, long-range, decadal, monthly, and seasonal)  and outlooks. Standardized  products having  high demand of the stakeholders.  

ACMAD launched continental which is impact-based forecasts for the DRM decision making. For the customized multi-hazard early warnings a continental advisory center  now under implementation which would be operational round the clock for DRM decision making . 

9.12  ACAMD Products and services for coordinating multi-hazard preparedness planning :

ACMAD continental watch, weather forecast products, and services provide early warning services and facilitating humanitarian response. The improved forecasts producing different range real-time and different range of forecasts (RDT, Short-range, medium-range, long-range, decadal, monthly, and seasonal) and outlooks. Standardized products having high demand of the stakeholders.  

ACMAD launched continental which is impact-based forecasts for the DRM decision making. For the customized multi-hazard early warnings, a situation room is now under implementation which would be operational round the clock for DRM decision making. 

Table 8 : ACMAD Products and services.

SL	Product/service types /category	Products	Description	DRM Perspective	DRM end-users
1)	Short range forecasting (Rainfall observation of Nowcasting,            Daily, Weekly)	Nowcasting	• Observation of weather parameters in every 15 minutes to hourly	• Every 15 minutes to hourly weather forecasting	Local Community  Local Sectors  Local Humanitarian actors

SL	Product/service types /category	Products	Description	DRM Perspective	DRM end-users
2)	Short rage forecasting (Rainfall observation of Nowcasting,            Daily, Weekly)	Global multimodal ensemble forecasting systems (GFS, APPAGE, UKMO, ECMWF, ICON, AVERAGE )	• Every 6-72 hours updates weather updates	• Multi-hazard early warning, multihazard preparedness, contingency planning.	IFRC,  UN-OCHA,  UN Agencies  National Disaster Operations Center,  national Disaster Management Organizations(NDMO)   Emergency Operations Center(EOC),  National            Meteorological        &           Hydrological Services(NMHS),  Humanitarian Actos Vulnerable sectors,  vulnerable community
		Daily observed rainfall	24 hours of observation of rainfall from WMO synoptic stations.	Flood/flash flood forecasting	Facilitate           IFRC,        UN-OCHA                for           flash        flooding preparedness  Met Agency to forecast on thunderstorm with special weather bulletin  National Disaster Management Organizations(NDMO)  , Emergency Operations Center(EOC) for the issue early warning and preparedness. National            Meteorological        &           Hydrological Services(NMHS) for flash/riverine floods warning. Humanitarian Actos for pre-positioning the reliefs  Vulnerable sectors( Agriculture, water, health, livelihood ) for early preparedness  vulnerable community for early preparedness
		Numerical Weather Prediction (NWP) model outputs (D1, D2 and D3 rain accumulation forecast), ITD positions (D1 up D3), and other relevant outlooks.	• Ensemble various models and develop daily, 3 days ( D1+D2+D3) forecasts	Important forecast for DRM actors with weather bulletin on precipitation amount, temperature, relative humidity.	Facilitate           IFRC,        UN-OCHA                for           flash        flooding preparedness  Met Agency to forecast on thunderstorm with special weather bulletin  National Disaster Management Organizations(NDMO)  , Emergency Operations Center(EOC) for the issue early warning and preparedness. National            Meteorological        &           Hydrological Services(NMHS) for flash/riverine floods warning. Humanitarian Actos for pre-positioning the reliefs  Vulnerable sectors( Agriculture, water, health, livelihood ) for early preparedness  vulnerable community for early preparedness

SL	Product/service types /category	Products	Description	DRM Perspective	DRM end-users
		Short range forecasting (Rainfall observation of Nowcasting, Daily, Weekly) :	Frequency of Decadal Cumulative (ARC2>= 50mm)    reference                   period                  1991-2020    Map showing the % frequency of rainfall incidence above 50mm	Area of extent under identified where rainfall goes over 50mm for the 10 days and undertake preparedness.	IFRC,  UN-OCHA,  UN Agencies  National Disaster Operations Center,  national Disaster Management Organizations(NDMO)  Emergency Operations Center(EOC),  National Meteorological        &               Hydrological Services(NMHS),  Humanitarian Actos • Vulnerable sectors,  vulnerable community
3)		Heavy Rainfall/Flash Flood Bulletin #349		Heavy Rainfall distribution map expected to be supporting preparedness and contingency planning	Facilitate           IFRC,        UN-OCHA                for           flash        flooding preparedness  Met Agency to forecast on thunderstorm with special weather bulletin  National Disaster Management Organizations(NDMO)  , Emergency Operations Center(EOC) for the issue early warning and preparedness. National            Meteorological        &           Hydrological Services(NMHS) for flash/riverine floods warning. Humanitarian Actos for pre-positioning the reliefs  Vulnerable sectors( Agriculture, water, health, livelihood ) for early preparedness  vulnerable community for early preparedness

SL	Product/service types /category	Products	Description	DRM Perspective	DRM end-users
4)		Rainfall variability	Frequency of Decadal Cumulative (ARC2>= 75mm)    reference                   period                  1991-2020    Map showing the % frequency of rainfall incidence above 75mm	Area of extent under identified where rainfall goes over 75mm and undertake preparedness        and               contingency planning.	Vulnerable sectors( Agriculture, water, health, livelihood ) for early preparedness  vulnerable community for early preparedness
5)		Rainfall variability	Frequency of Decadal Cumulative (ARC2>= 100mm) reference period 1991-2020     Map showing the %  frequency  of  rainfall incidence above 100mm	Area of extent under identified where rainfall goes over 100mm and undertake preparedness and contingency planning..	Vulnerable sectors( Agriculture, water, health, livelihood ) for early preparedness  vulnerable community for early preparedness
6)		Seasonal Precipitation Forecast for Nob-Dec-Jan 2021-22	Seasonal precipitation forecast for Nov-Dec-Jan 2021-22	Identify risk of agriculture, health, water, natural resource and environment resource sectors.	Vulnerable sectors( Agriculture, water, health, livelihood ) for early preparedness  vulnerable community for early preparedness

SL	Product/service types /category	Products	Description	DRM Perspective	DRM end-users
9)	Long range forecast product for Africa Valid for October -Nov-Dec 2021 / Dec- Jan 2022	Seasonal Temperature forecast for Nov-Dec 21/-Jan – Feb 2022	Temperature forecast                 Map showing near above average temperature	Temperate anomaly   that can Impact agriculture, health, water sectors.	Vulnerable sectors( Agriculture, water, health, livelihood ) for early preparedness  vulnerable community for early preparedness
10)	Future hazard map of Africa	Hazard scenario for 2011 -2040 in Africa	Map showing the drier and wetter	Map showing drier part areas, season delay areas, early season rainfall, drier than average rainy season, drier period , cessation of precipitation, wetter areas.	Vulnerable sectors( Agriculture, water, health, livelihood ) for early preparedness  vulnerable community for early preparedness
11)	Hazard map of Africa	No of Rainy days Frequency of heavy rainfall 20m – 50mm Daily rainfall		Understanding the rainfall pattern , frequency of rainfall occurring which expected to be understing the reinfall regime what understanding the water dependent sectors could be impacting.	• Vulnerable sectors( Agriculture, water, health, livelihood ) for early preparedness

SL	Product/service types /category	Products	Description	DRM Perspective	DRM end-users
12)	Policy Brief statements for the region and subregions	Rainfall anomaly map			Vulnerable sectors( Agriculture, water, health, livelihood ) for early preparedness  vulnerable community for early preparedness
13)		Gridded Precipitation		Precipitation distribution map	Vulnerable sectors( Agriculture, water, health, livelihood ) for early preparedness  vulnerable community for early preparedness

SL	Product/service types /category	Products	Description	DRM Perspective	DRM end-users
14)		ARC2 seasonal cumulative rainfall, onset & distribution			Vulnerable sectors( Agriculture, water, health, livelihood ) for early preparedness  vulnerable community for early preparedness
15)	Long Range Map	Meningitis vigilance Map		Identifying the area of extent  falling under emergency meningitis infection	Health Sector  Vulnerable Community  IFRC,  UN-OCHA,
16)	Long Range Map	Meningitis vigilance Map		Identifying the area of extent  falling under emergency meningitis infection	Health Sector  Vulnerable Community  IFRC,  UN-OCHA,  •

9.13   Data Dissemination & Feedbacks Receiving Mechanism 

The most important element of communication for coordination mechanism data exchange to reaching out to target stakeholders and remaining them with the coordination and exchange loop. The African continental multi-hazard contexts are so diverse in terms of landscape, extreme weather phenomena,  risks, and vulnerabilities, diverse and most erratic weather system of the globe. As a result, the extreme weather events over the continent are highly rapid on-set, recurrent and larger extent of damages being done. Stakeholders and vulnerable communities remain to be hopeless in addressing the multi-hazards trauma. 

 Accurate and timely access to impact-based multi-hazards early warnings can minimize loss and damage at the local level. The process is reiterative, interactive, and opened ended nature of the modality for keeping last-mile informed and interactively being learned lessons from them, and being informed by them how to formulate forecast-based appropriate intervention response planning.  Understanding community vulnerabilities are a difficult process because of the diverse landscape and topographical context. However, the myDEWETRA platform provided input datasets that can easily be interpreted with GIS software for community and other multiple levels of vulnerabilities. The platform having the interface of a multi-hazard alerts system for the larger audiences, and that can be utilized for the dissemination of the MHEW information. 

9.14  The necessity of launching MHEWS web portal 

To date, AUC not having a classified MHEWS web portal for disseminating only the multi-hazards, their impacts, and advisories for the decision-making desks, which is now an urgent requirement. The highly programmatical web portal will be able to capture the feeds information from local level actors.  Proposed web portal address e.g. www.mhews.auc.int  or www.mhews.int  

9.15 Social journalism/Citizen through social media

Using the social media platform for ensuring inclusive participation in the hybrid feeding back processes through the social journalism media model that consists of a wide range of contributors and readers in the network. The social journalist can be involved to capture the photographs and videos of the on-set disaster events and to post the social network (Facebook group/page, Twitter group, Telegram, LinkedIn Group, etc.) as big data for further analysis and decision making. 

9.16  Messaging with Telegram Apps  

This app user can provide feeds back to the circulated early warnings. AUC media monitor and continental advisory center  to create the user group for disseminating information and taking feedbacks.

9.17 Instance Messaging, voice /video calling : 

These are the most important and useful tools for live chatting and watching the ground-level disaster damage and impact scenarios by using  WhatsApp group, Facebook group,  Telegram group, and other IM tools. Those tools are expected to be enabled media monitors to capture remote and hard-to-reach area information. 

9.18  Uses of national media outlets and Community Radio 

This is the most comprehensive and affordable means of communication are the national radio, Television, cell broadcasting, cell phone Interactive voice response (IVR), and most importantly Community radios, which can be called as lifeline of the information accessing modality. Member States can vastly rely on Community radio for bridging the last mile information dissemination gaps. 

9.19   Some simplified users of MHEWS 

Policy Makers. This group is comprised of RECs policy desks, MS level national and local governments, sector departments, NHMS, and other relevant policy intuitions. 

Local vulnerable communities: This group is comprised of smallholder farmers, vulnerable communities, etc. 

Farmers:   This target group is comprised of crop farmers, smallholder farmers, industrialized farmers, pastoralists (livestock herders), fishermen, and rural enterprises. This target group has multiple needs for weather and climate information. It can save lives, contain losses, increase productivity and reduce risk. Reaching rural farmers is a challenge, Internet communication is virtually impossible, literacy is low, and there are regional and village-level cultural and language differences. ( community radio could be  useful  ) Private Sector. Private sector enterprises benefit from tailored weather information to protect human and physical resources and make climate-smart business decisions, they can also play a role in disseminating messages.

10.0 Conclusion and Recommendations

Designing, implementing and activating the Multi-Hazard Early Warning System (MHEWS) already being recognized as heavily technical settings and encompassing integration of deployment for extreme weather screening to analyzing and disseminating early warnings advisories promptly. The deployment of myDEWETEA platform can effectively support in producing extreme weather-induced multi-hazard interpreted continental watch bulletin, multi-hazard event situation reporting.

The established ACMAD Continental Multi-Hazard advisory center at Niamey and other parallel centers at AUC and ICPAC now effectively contributing for extreme weather observations,  development of impactbased early warnings & advisories for getting member states prepared for issuing necessary early warnings, , contingency/preparedness planning for impending multi-hazards. 

The African Union Commission (AUC) playing the centralized role in implementation of the MHEWS for the continent with representing the framework approach of coordination mechanism of data exchange, data sharing policy, legal framework of system activation and  aligning Sendai Framework & Global Framework for Climate Services  (GFCS).  The mechanism providing the way forward for the collection and management, usage of the data and products and the rights of the data providers specify the roles and the contacts of the responsible data holders and providers in inflow and outflow of datasets & information, undertaken initiatives and new  paradigm of developing MHEWS, dissemination, and integrating with the risk-informed decision-making process at the local level. 

ACMAD is co-partner to the AUC led MHEWS  to leverage the best practices, innovative methodologies, and existing tools to share actionable early warnings and build sustainability for climate information and early warning systems initiatives.  The coordinated efforts of ACMAD, AUC & ICPAC  is expected to be providing best output of multi-hazard advisories. 

Recommendations :

The  climate change induced  risks and vulnerabilities over the African continent are being characterized as multifaceted , erratic, extremes are increasingly growing as rapid on-set events. The weather and climate system over the continents becoming an erratic pattern as increasing temperatures, changing precipitation patterns and more extreme weather are threatening human health and safety, food and water security, and socio-economic development in Africa. Over the document, several technical issues and strategy being highlighted on how to improve the whole of MHEWS technical paradigm  of climate risk governance and coordination across the institutions & stakeholders, stakeholders/individual  levels. Further to consolidate the issue following recommendations can be outlined;

1. Taking a status-quo at Member state level of what types of MHEWS putting in place, review the system ICT infrastructures, components  functional  capacity, indicative gaps and retrofitting the whole system 
2. Linking MS level MHEWS with AUC, ACMAD, ICPAC level MHEWS for establishing a both way traffic for information exchange and effective impact based early warnings.
3. Design and implementation of functional MHEWS at the community level
4. Linkage with academia , sector departments, R & D organizations for comprehensive risk and vulnerability analysis at the administrative level .
5. Further customization of myDEWETRA platform  and develop an interface for multi-hazard alerting protocols and simultaneously develop a web converting apps of myDEWETRA platform   so that every individuals can access to that multi-hazard alerts automatically.
6. AUC to send a string official memo to all AUC member states for functionally lkined with MHEWS and share all information timely and necessarily.
7. Developing a strong and actionable level of a coordination mechanism for data exchange among the stakeholders with both-way traffic from AUC (ACMAD/ICPAC ) <> RECs<> Member States <>  NMHS<> Government Sector Department <> Local Governments <> Vulnerable Community. 
8. Establish coordination and linkage with National Media, News outlets, Community Radios for disseminating and having risk information. 
9. Engagement of national-level HMHS organizations for analyzing extreme weather-induced risk and vulnerabilities, and keep them with AUC-led coordination mechanism.
10. Upgradation of ACMAD RCC to impact-based multi-hazard early warnings continental advisory center  intended to address the impact-based early warning gaps. The ACMAD continental advisory center  remains to be linked with other Continental advisory center  of AUC(EOC), ICPAC, EECs, AU sub-organs, Member States, and beyond. 
11. Establish coordination and linkage WMO designated centers for having specialized region-focused weather data and information.
12. Develop interactive online portal on    MHEWS  
13. Develop social media platform for information dissemination and coordination.
14. Delegating the job to RCCs( ACMAD & ICPAC)  for developing severe weather forecasts, multihazard situation reporting.
15. Implying policy advocacy of multi-hazard risk screening, data capture, information coordination  
16. Improving Africa Media Monitor (AMM) Structures, Procedures, Service automation
17. Establishing and functioning interactive social networking platform for inclusive participation and information exchange, the early warnings dissemination process 
18. Implying policy advocacy of multi-hazard risk screening, data capture, information coordination  
19. Putting policy regulation to member states to establish coherent coordination mechanism under standing orders on disaster (SoD)  for exclusive engagement of  DRM stakeholders &  actors, the private sector, NGOS, social services organizations,  and the civil society as partners for incorporating inputs to    MHEWS  as a way to ensure their long-term sustainability.
20. Improving Africa Media Monitor (AMM) Structures, Procedures, Service automation 21) Developing a disaster event database on Africa on past disasters  22) Develop a digital library of disaster event information. 

23) Establishing and functioning interactive social networking platform for inclusive participation and information exchange, the early warnings dissemination process 

Reference :

AU AFRICAN UNION HANDBOOK 2019 

African Union (AU) Agenda 2063

ACMAD Strategic Plan 2020-2023

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Warning and Early Action, including in the Context of Transboundary Risk Management 

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WMO  Vision for the WMO Integrated Global Observing System in 2040 

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Website Visited:

www.acmad.net https://amcomet.wmo.int/  https://igad.int/  https://tropic.ssec.wisc.edu/ https://cimms.ou.edu/  https://au.int/en/organs/recs 

https://gfcs.wmo.int/CSIS  https://www.regionalcommissions.org/ 

https://www.eumetsat.int/international-cooperation/european-meteorological-infrastructure-emi https://www.cemac.int

ACMAD Strategic Plan 2020-2023

Guidance Note on Facilitating Integration and Coherence for SDG Implementation – Institutional Coordination mechanism 

Road Map for Improving the Availability, Access  and Use of Disaster Risk Information for Early

WMO 2019   Manual on the WMO Information System Annex VII to the WMO Technical Regulations

Road map Coordination mechanism and Continental Roadmap for submitting the Inaugural Biennial Report to the AU Assembly

WMO : Climate Data Management System Specifications

ACPC   Assessment of Africa’s Climatic Records and Recording Networks Including Strategic for Rescuing of Climatic Data

WMO  Vision for the WMO Integrated Global Observing System in 2040 

 WMO Guidelines on Multi-hazard Impact-based Forecast and Warning Services

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This research is strictly being copyrighted by the researcher: Z M Sajjadul Islam , Multi-hazard early warning Expert

For Detailed knowledge, System design, ICT Technologies, Geospatial & IT Programmatic  coding and other issues related to Global Multi-hazard early warnings please email : zmsajjad@gmail.com

Call me at WhatsApp : +88 01711 979179 , Skype : zmsajjad